The new $140 price target still implies 118% upside from current levels near $64. Bernstein argues the Open USD consortium threat is overstated.
Bernstein cut its price target for Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to $140 from $190, analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a research note. The firm kept its Outperform rating, arguing that competitive pressure from the Open USD consortium is overstated and likely to fade.
The update comes ahead of Circle's second-quarter earnings, which Bernstein projects will be essentially flat. USDC's circulating supply ended the quarter at roughly $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the prior period, though average supply ticked up modestly to about $76 billion. Softer crypto market conditions have slowed stablecoin expansion, a pattern Bernstein frames as a temporary pause rather than a structural shift.
Even after the revision, the $140 target implies about 118% upside from shares near $64 at the time of the note. The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model that equates to roughly 23 times estimated 2028 adjusted EBITDA. Near-term estimates were trimmed: end-2026 USDC supply fell 37% to $83 billion, the 2028 figure dropped 40% to about $170 billion, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA was cut 12% to $602 million.
A core element of the note addresses concerns around Open USD, a consortium-backed stablecoin that launched in June with support from more than 140 payments, banking, and fintech firms, including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe. The consortium had weighed on Circle's shares. Bernstein argues the threat is less coherent than it appears. Circle has secured memorandums of understanding with several of the same organizations, including Kakao, Samsung, and BNY. A Samsung representative's earlier statement that no formal consultations had taken place and that any role was uncertain was cited as evidence of limited coordination. Visa's recent commentary that it intends to remain multi-coin and multi-chain, focusing on connecting clients to the broader ecosystem rather than picking winners, further supports the view.
Additional near-term pressure comes from the Hyperliquid revenue-sharing arrangement, under which a substantial portion of reserve income on USDC balances held there is redirected. Those balances have grown past $6 billion, with the full financial effect showing up in the third quarter. Reserve income nonetheless held relatively steady in the second quarter despite minor rate declines, partly offset by higher yields elsewhere.
Bernstein highlighted Circle's regulatory positioning, including OCC approval for a national trust bank, its liquidity advantages, and its expansion into payments, real-world asset tokenization, and related infrastructure. Future growth is expected to be driven by partnerships in financial services and the emerging agentic economy. The firm maintains that USDC's status as a leading regulated dollar stablecoin supports a constructive long-term outlook.
Read more on the CRCL stock page.
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