Avino Silver Mines: $60 Silver, 12.5x EBITDA, Fund Calls Asymmetric

A fund manager known for value-oriented precious metals bets is making a big public call on Avino Silver & Gold Mines. EMA GARP Fund, in its second-quarter 2026 investor letter, described the Canadian miner as “crazy cheap with massive asymmetry.” The letter, dated this month, lays out the arithmetic behind that claim.

Avino closed at $5.63 on July 24, giving it a market cap of about $987 million. The stock has rallied 69% over the past year but slid 10% in the last month. The fund argues the recent dip has left shares undervalued relative to current silver prices.

The company produced 2.6 million silver-equivalent ounces in 2025 from two mines in Mexico's Durango Province, a region the fund called “generally safe” and free of cartel trouble. All-in sustaining cost came in at $23.75 per ounce. With silver averaging $44.70 an ounce last year, the mine-level margin was $20.95 per ounce, contributing $54 million before SG&A. Full-year 2025 EBITDA was $28.5 million.

Silver is now trading near $60 an ounce, roughly 34% above the 2025 average. That higher price is flowing straight to the bottom line. In the first quarter of this year, Avino posted EBITDA of $20 million – already 70% of the full-year 2025 total in just three months.

Bloomberg consensus estimates call for 2026 EBITDA of $80 million. At the current market cap, that implies a multiple of roughly 12.5 times. The fund said the miner's operating leverage is substantial: each dollar move in silver largely drops to profit given the fixed cost base.

Twelve hedge funds held Avino positions at the end of the first quarter, up from 11 in the prior period. The fund's letter suggests that number could grow as more investors price in today's silver levels.

What would confirm the call? Silver holds above $60 through the second half of 2026. Avino sustains or grows production toward its 3 million-ounce run rate. Margins widen as costs stay flat. Any pullback in silver, by contrast, would compress EBITDA quickly. A $5 drop in the metal price would cut annual EBITDA by roughly $13 million if production and costs hold steady, knocking the multiple toward 15 times.

The fund also flagged cost inflation and operational risks at the two mines, though it said the current valuation already discounts “sizable” margin for error. The full letter is available on EMA GARP's website.

AlphaScala's ASM stock page carries no proprietary score for the shares, but the company's basic materials sector and silver-focused production profile make it a direct play on precious metals prices.

For now, the stock's reaction to the fund's thesis will hinge on the next quarterly production numbers and the path of silver. The metal's rally this year has already lifted Avino shares. Whether the “massive asymmetry” the fund sees materializes depends on silver staying high enough to keep that EBITDA expansion on track.