Australian shares gain 0.6% after Iran truce calms crude fears

The real test for both crude and gold lies in the macro data due this week. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for May is out Wednesday. A print below 50 would reinforce fears that industrial demand is softening, weighing on crude and industrial metals. A beat would shift attention back to supply tightness in refined products, especially diesel and jet fuel. Global inventories for those products are running below the five-year average.

For gold, the U.S. jobs report on Friday carries more weight than the ceasefire. A strong payrolls number would push the dollar higher and delay rate-cut expectations, pressuring gold further. A weak print would revive the bull case. Gold has moved inversely to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index with a rolling 30-day correlation of -0.7 since the start of the year. The gold profile tracks these relationships.

The market's next decision point on crude is technical. Brent has support at $76.50, the 100-day moving average. A break below that level would open the door to $74, a zone where OPEC+ rhetoric typically stiffens. The group's next ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 2. Producers have signaled they can extend or deepen cuts if demand falters. That threat has kept the contango in Brent's nearby futures relatively flat, a sign the market is pricing a floor. For more on crude's positioning, see the crude oil profile.

The Iran truce removes one variable from the commodity risk matrix. The demand picture and the dollar direction remain unresolved. The next 48 hours of data will tell traders whether the ceasefire is a genuine turning point or just a pause in a longer trend. Underlying mechanics – pass-through lags in fuel and central bank buying in gold – have not changed. OPEC+ supply discipline remains in place.