Armstrong sees institutions locking in rates before yields climb further, with war and inflation as separate upward forces. He plans to distribute his new book on the ECM at the December WEC.
Alpha Score of 41 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, weak quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Economist Martin Armstrong is warning clients about a brewing credit crunch as the calendar turns toward 2028, with institutional bond issuance already accelerating to lock in rates before what he expects to be a sustained move higher.
Armstrong, in correspondence with a reader this week, said a number of his institutional clients are issuing bonds to lock in current yields. He has suggested those clients look to private equity markets for the same purpose rather than bid up public-market rates.
"With war on the horizon, rates will press higher, and that is separate from domestic inflation," Armstrong wrote.
The warning comes as Armstrong prepares to publish a new book on the business cycle and the discovery of his Economic Confidence Model (ECM), which he plans to distribute at the December World Economic Conference (WEC) in Tampa. He described the book as an effort to pass along his framework for understanding cyclical economic patterns to a younger generation.
Armstrong, who has long argued that recessions and depressions are not flaws in capitalism but natural features of a system operating under fixed economic rhythms, criticized both Marxist and Keynesian economics for attempting to eliminate the business cycle. The ECM, he said, is a counterpoint to those efforts.
"Most economists have struggled to try to control it, or devise schemes to eliminate it, like 'You will Own Nothing and Be Happy,'" he wrote.
Armstrong also noted that nearly half the audience at his recent Tampa conference was students, a demographic shift he welcomed. He contrasted that engagement with what he described as the greed-driven behavior of certain market participants who accumulate wealth without purpose.
"Some people are greedy and just seek how much money they can get, even if they would not be able to spend it," he wrote. "They leave nothing behind."
On the academic side, Armstrong said he has completed a new work, "Understanding the World Economy," adding to his earlier books "Fiat," "Plot to Seize Russia," and "Manipulating the World Economy."
He credited Milton Friedman with recognizing the importance of his early forex trading work, which led to the discovery that the ECM could forecast geopolitical events, including wars. Armstrong described that discovery as accidental, comparing it to penicillin.
"The establishment always rejects it, or in my case they call it 'controversial,' since they cannot disprove that the business cycles exist, or all the forecasts the model has produced," he wrote.
Armstrong's next WEC conference is scheduled for December in Tampa. He said the event was always intended as a vehicle for passing on knowledge, not for personal gain.
"I am undertaking this work in the twilight of my years, not at the start of my career, and not for money," he wrote. "I am fully aware that my work will never reach the mainstream, because those who despise me will do everything in their power to prevent it from gaining traction."
Drafted by a large language model from the source reporting linked above, then screened by automated publishing checks. It is not read by a journalist before publication. Some articles cite our Alpha Score. Verify prices and figures against the original source. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.