ArcelorMittal Buyback, First Majestic Sale: Sub-$100 Moves

Two commodity-sector stocks trading under $100 a share moved this week on corporate actions, not earnings surprises. ArcelorMittal (MT) finished the first tranche of its 2025–2030 buyback program, repurchasing 10 million shares at an average €49.32, and immediately opened a second tranche for up to another 10 million shares. First Majestic Silver (AG) agreed to sell its San Martin mine in Mexico to Flextronics Supply and Service for $90 million.

The broader market backdrop adds context. Andrew Pyle, Senior Investment Advisor at CIBC Wood Gundy, told BNN Bloomberg on July 8 that the AI trade is reaching an inflection point. Companies must prove they can monetize AI investments, he said. End-users may lack the capacity to absorb AI service costs; thinning margins among firms absorbing those expenses, plus the trend of companies issuing debt and cutting costs, signal real anxiety. Pyle said resilient economic fundamentals in the US and globally, along with the lack of an extreme economic impact from the ongoing Iran war, are supporting a rotation into cyclical sectors. That rotation could let the market advance even without strong tech or AI support, he argued.

ArcelorMittal’s buyback is shareholder-mandated, approved at the May 2025 annual general meeting. The program runs through May 2030, contingent on market conditions and free cash flow after dividends. The first tranche’s 10 million shares are held in treasury for future cancellation. The second tranche immediately authorizes another 10 million shares. The steelmaker operates in 60 countries and is the world’s largest steel producer outside China. Steel import controls have tightened recently, and the company is automating operations with AWS. The buyback reduces share count incrementally. It does not change the demand picture for steel, which faces slower European construction and energy-cost pressure from the Iran war. Pyle’s rotation thesis, however, suggests cyclical demand could hold up if global economic data stays firm.

First Majestic’s San Martin mine has sat under care and maintenance since July 2019. The sale price of $90 million is mostly deferred: $2.5 million upfront, with the remaining $87.5 million due in installments through August 2032. The deal requires Mexican antitrust approval and is expected to close in the fourth quarter. First Majestic’s Q1 results showed revenue up 95% and free cash flow of $223.5 million. The San Martin sale is portfolio cleanup, not a liquidity move. The company now focuses entirely on its North American silver and gold properties. With silver prices rallying this year, AG shares have moved higher but still trade below $10.

Both MT and AG are well under $100. The buyback and the mine sale remove specific overhangs: share dilution from the buyback program now has a second tranche in motion, and San Martin is no longer a cash drain. Neither move signals a shift in the underlying commodity cycles. Steel demand depends on tariff policy and infrastructure spending. Silver demand is tied to industrial use and monetary-metals appetite. Pyle’s message to clients was to stay invested and adhere to an established asset allocation. The rotation into cyclicals could benefit both names if the economic fundamentals he cited hold through the second half.