Aramco Q2 profit seen up 29% despite 7.2% revenue slide

Saudi Aramco, listed on the Tadawul as 2222.SR, is expected to post a 29.1% jump in second-quarter net profit to SAR 115.1 billion, before nonrecurring items and one-offs, according to the average estimate of eight research firms compiled by Argaam. The year-earlier figure, on the same basis, was about SAR 89 billion. The same survey puts revenue 7.22% lower, at SAR 377.75 billion, against roughly SAR 407 billion in Q2 2025.

Crude averaged $96.61 a barrel in the second quarter, up 44.9% from a year earlier and 24% from the first three months. May oil production ran 28.5% below year-ago levels; exports fell 44.6%, roughly 16 points steeper. Domestic consumption rose about 4.7% in the month. The export decline more than offsets the 44.9% price gain on crude revenue. Crude exports are one leg of the top line, which also carries refined products and domestic fuel sales.

At those two figures, net margin widens to about 30% from roughly 22% a year earlier.

Propane prices averaged 24% above a year earlier and 40% above the first quarter. Butane ran 37% higher year on year and 51% higher quarter on quarter. Both advances outpaced crude's 24% quarterly gain.

Two corporate items filled out the quarter. Aramco acquired all ownership interests in Tas'helat Marketing Co., or TMC, making it a wholly owned subsidiary. It also signed an agreement with Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) to transfer its equity stakes in Pengerang Refining Co. and Pengerang Petrochemical Co., the refining and petrochemical joint venture known as PRefChem. Completion of that transfer would end Aramco's ownership of the Malaysian complex.

Aramco declared a Q1 2026 base dividend of SAR 82.08 billion, or SAR 0.3393 a share. Most of that payout goes to the Saudi state, which controls the company.

The Q2 report is due Aug. 4.