Antipodes exited Suzano (SUZ) as pulp oversupply and slow Chinese demand squeezed margins. Export prices fell to $562/t. Seventeen hedge funds held the stock at Q1 end.
Alpha Score of 44 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Antipodes Partners sold its entire position in Suzano S.A. (NYSE:SUZ) during the second quarter, the firm disclosed in its Q2 2026 investor letter for the Global Value Strategy. The exit came as the margin of safety narrowed in a pulp market heading toward oversupply.
Suzano closed at $8.22 on August 6, down 18.74% over the past 52 weeks. First-quarter 2026 export pulp prices stood at $562 per tonne, with pulp EBITDA per tonne falling 11% year on year, Antipodes wrote. Management’s expectation that prices would return to prior peaks above $700 per tonne looks uncertain without significant supply cuts, the fund said.
New capacity in South America and Southeast Asia is expected to add pressure over the next few years. Demand growth from China, the largest pulp buyer, has slowed. The combination of rising supply and a weaker Brazilian real against the dollar has compressed margins across the industry, Antipodes said. The fund noted that despite Suzano’s low cash costs, the cycle offers limited asymmetric upside under those conditions.
Seventeen hedge funds held Suzano at the end of the first quarter, up from 15 in the previous three months, according to Insider Monkey data. The increase in holdings suggests some investors see value at current levels, but the Antipodes exit signals that the supply overhang may take years to clear.
For the pulp market to turn, producers would need to cut capacity or Chinese demand would need to stage a sustained recovery. The September quarterly guidance from Suzano and its main competitor, Klabin, will offer the next major data point on both fronts.
Suzano’s stock page is available here. For broader coverage of commodity markets, see our commodities analysis.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.