Amazon's DeSantis says quantum computers arrive by 2031. $2B in federal incentives and corporate hubs signal a long-term infrastructure build. Alpha Score 61 for IBM.
Amazon senior vice president Peter DeSantis said Wednesday the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers will arrive in five to seven years, placing the timeline around 2031.
DeSantis, who leads Amazon's organization for AI models, custom silicon, and quantum computing, told CNBC the machines would grow in capability each year. He said chemistry and material science would be early targets. “These are the problems where today we cannot run high enough fidelity simulations in a classic computer, and once we have a quantum computer, we’re going to find some real progress,” DeSantis said, according to the report.
The prediction is the first specific timeline Amazon has offered on quantum computing. It lands in the middle of other expert estimates, which range from five to 15 years. DeSantis, a 27-year Amazon veteran, reports directly to CEO Andy Jassy. He was appointed in December 2025 to head the new unit combining AI model work with silicon development and quantum computing research.
The Commerce Department in May announced $2.013 billion in federal incentives for nine companies to accelerate quantum development, calling the technology critical for national security. IBM has opened quantum hubs in Chicago and Cambridge, Massachusetts. BMO established an enterprise-wide quantum and AI group in April, aiming to improve client experiences and efficiency.
For investors, the 2031 timeline means no commercial quantum revenue before the early 2030s. Federal funding and corporate commitments point to a long infrastructure build. Firms with strong quantum patents or cloud distribution are among those that could benefit. Among companies spending on quantum infrastructure today, IBM holds an Alpha Score of 61 out of 100 in AlphaScala's stock analysis, a moderate rating that reflects a sector where returns are years away.
The Commerce Department said the incentives are designed to strengthen America's position in quantum computing, a frontier technology with implications for national security and technological resilience.
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