
AlphaGrep CEO Bhautik Ambani says drawdowns, not CAGR, determine investor success. Nifty delivered 11% returns. The trade-off was 20% volatility and 60% drawdowns.
Bhautik Ambani, CEO of AlphaGrep Investment Management, says mutual fund investors have their priorities wrong.
On The Rediff Podcast, Ambani argued investors spend too much time picking the right fund and too little time on asset allocation. The first question almost everyone asks is how much they will earn. Far fewer ask how much they could lose along the way.
According to Ambani, that single question often determines whether an investor ultimately succeeds or fails. The smoothness of the investment journey matters as much as the destination. A portfolio that drops 60% in a crisis rarely holds its investors through the recovery.
Ambani cited the Nifty's own track record. Over the last two decades, the index posted annualized returns of roughly 11% to 11.5%. The price tag was steep. Annual volatility ran around 20%. Maximum drawdowns approached 60% during the Global Financial Crisis. There were multi-year stretches when the index went nowhere.
For many retail investors, surviving those phases proved harder than earning the eventual gains. The conversation went beyond the numbers. Ambani examined why behavioral mistakes destroy more wealth than most investors realize. Chasing the prior year's winning asset class and fixating on CAGR are expensive habits. Ignoring risk, he said, can prove costly over time.
Ambani challenged a core belief on the podcast. The best portfolio is not the one with the highest return. It is the one that makes it easiest for investors to stay the course.
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