Affirm management laid out a $10B GMV target by FY2028 at investor day. The card product now accounts for 20% of volume with attach rates above internal targets. Credit metrics remain stable.
Affirm Holdings held its investor day Thursday, with management laying out a path to $10 billion in annual gross merchandise volume by fiscal 2028. The target implies roughly doubling the current run rate, driven by deeper penetration into travel and ticketing, plus auto parts – verticals where the buy-now-pay-later lender has historically been underweight.
The stock has gained about 12% since Affirm reported fiscal Q3 results that beat consensus on revenue and transaction volume two weeks ago. It remains down 18% from its February high. Several analysts raised price targets after the investor day, citing the expanded total-addressable-market estimate and the trajectory of the Affirm Card.
The Affirm Card now accounts for about 20% of total GMV. Executives said the card's attach rate – the share of cardholders who use it for repeat purchases – is running above internal targets. Card-based volume carries lower acquisition costs than one-off installment loans, which require a new underwriting decision each time.
Credit performance was another focus. The 30-day delinquency rate on Affirm's loan book held at 2.4%, flat with the prior quarter. The charge-off rate ticked down to 3.1% from 3.3%. Management attributed the stability to tighter underwriting on longer-duration loans and a shift toward shorter-term, lower-risk installment plans. The reserve coverage ratio – the share of the loan book set aside for expected losses – stood at 5.8%, roughly in line with pre-pandemic levels.
Affirm's Alpha Score sits at 56 out of 100, a Moderate rating within the Financials sector. Revenue growth and market-share gains are real. The stock's valuation – roughly 3.5 times forward revenue – leaves little room for execution missteps.
The next concrete check on the thesis comes with fiscal Q4 results, expected in late August. Investors will see whether the card's attach rate and GMV growth held through the summer travel season.
For a deeper look at how Affirm's risk-reward stacks up against peers, see the AFRM stock page.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.