Adani's ₹1.53 lakh cr capex hits record as EBITDA growth lags

Together, the utility, transport, and infrastructure segments contributed ₹82,083 crore, or about 87% of portfolio EBITDA. The group is now structurally dependent on long-gestation infrastructure assets for its earnings base.

Debt Discipline Holds at 3.3x Net Debt/EBITDA

The group maintained that balance-sheet discipline remained intact. Portfolio-level net debt-to-EBITDA stood at 3.3 times at the end of FY26, below the stated guidance of 3.5 times. Cash balances were ₹55,852 crore, equivalent to 15% of gross debt.

The average cost of borrowing declined to 7.8% in FY26 from 9% two years ago, supported by rating upgrades across group companies. According to the group, all Adani portfolio assets now carry domestic credit ratings of A- or higher.

This matters because the capex cycle is not self-funding from current operations. The group is relying on a combination of internal accruals, debt at improved rates, and equity. If operating cash flows from the legacy businesses (cement, power, coal trading) weaken further, the debt-service ratio will tighten despite the lower average cost.

Risks: Execution, Concentration, Liquidity

Three risks stand out for anyone tracking the group's listed entities:

• Execution risk on 5.1 GW renewable: Delays in commissioning or grid connectivity snags would push EBITDA contribution into FY28.
• Sector concentration: 87% of EBITDA comes from three segments – a sector-specific regulatory shock (e.g., airport tariff caps, power purchase price redeterminations) would impact the entire portfolio.
• Liquidity gap: If the group slows capex to protect leverage ratios, the growth premium that investors assign to the infrastructure assets could compress.

What Confirms or Weakens the Setup

A sustained improvement at Adani Cement and Adani Power would signal that the mature businesses have stabilized, allowing the new assets to add incrementally rather than just replace lost EBITDA. A weaker-than-expected cargo growth at Adani Ports would be the first red flag, given that transport is currently the strongest earnings driver.

For traders positioning around the group's listed entities, the Adani Green Energy earnings momentum provides a valuation anchor. With 14.6% EBITDA growth, it trades at a premium to the group's portfolio multiple. The gap reflects market expectations that the renewable platform will be the primary beneficiary of the capex cycle.

If the group delivers on its guidance to keep net debt-to-EBITDA below 3.5x while growing EBITDA at double digits over the next two years, the stock market analysis of the group's risk profile will shift. Until then, the ₹1.53 lakh crore capex remains an investment in future earnings that have not yet materialized.

For a broader perspective on how corporate capex cycles affect equity valuations, see stock market analysis. Traders can compare brokerage offerings for exposure to Indian infrastructure names via best stock brokers.

The Adani Group's record spending in FY26 sets a high bar for earnings delivery in FY27. Whether that bar is cleared depends on how quickly the new runways, renewable parks, and smelters start generating cash. The 5.6% EBITDA growth suggests the tipping point has not yet arrived.