64 Countries Have Already Passed Peak Population. More Are Next

The United States never appears in the peak map even by 2100, but only because the UN assumes enough immigration to offset low birth rates. With zero net migration, the U.S. would peak soon and lose 60 million people by 2100, a 130 million gap versus the migration-inclusive scenario.

For countries like South Korea, the decline looks baked in. Even aggressive assumptions – a rebound in fertility, a jump in life expectancy, or a surge in immigration – cannot stop the contraction under plausible scenarios, UN researchers concluded.

The demographic transition carries direct consequences for equity markets. A shrinking workforce cuts potential GDP growth. Older populations shift demand from housing and durables toward healthcare and income-generating assets. Pension systems face pressure when fewer workers support more retirees.

Countries that peak later – India and much of sub-Saharan Africa – may hold a demographic dividend for longer, but even there fertility rates are falling. The global trend is toward stable or shrinking populations, a structural shift with no historic precedent.

The full interactive tool from the UN allows users to stress-test how changes in fertility, mortality, or migration alter the population path. The base case already points to a world where most major economies are shrinking by the second half of the century.