Thirty-year Treasury yields hit 5.18%, the highest since 2007. Bitcoin ETFs lost over $1B in a week as tokenized Treasuries swelled past $15B. Market rotates to yield.
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Thirty-year Treasury yields crossed 5.18% in Thursday trading, a level not seen since the months before the 2008 financial crisis. The 10-year note climbed to roughly 4.7%, its highest in over a year.
The catalyst stack is dense. Oil prices jumped after the Iran conflict escalated. US producer prices rose 6.5% year-over-year in May, the fastest pace since late 2022. Federal debt sits near $39 trillion, with annual interest payments approaching $1 trillion. Bank of America analysts described US fiscal policy as the "elephant in the room."
Higher yields make the government's interest bill bigger, which widens the deficit, which forces more borrowing, which pushes yields higher again. That feedback loop is now visible across developed markets. The average 10-year borrowing rate among G7 nations has risen to about 4%, up from roughly 3.2% before the Iran conflict began. Japanese government bonds are feeling similar pressure.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded more than $1 billion in net outflows during a single week in May, according to data from Bloomberg. No token-specific catalyst drove the selling. Traders said the move reflected a macro rotation out of risk assets and into safety.
At the same time, tokenized US Treasuries reached over $15 billion in on-chain value by May, roughly three times the $5 billion recorded 14 months earlier. The growth shows where institutional attention is heading. Instead of betting on Bitcoin's price in a risk-off environment, large allocators are using blockchain rails to access yield-bearing instruments.
Mortgage rates track the 10-year yield directly. With the 10-year at 4.7%, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are climbing, cooling housing demand.
The next inflection point is the July refunding announcement, when the Treasury details its borrowing needs for the coming quarter. An increase in issuance would add supply pressure on yields, reinforcing the move that already has Bitcoin and traditional risk assets on the defensive.
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Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.