AlphaScala Weekly: QQQ sinks 3%, Fed holds on 10-2 dissent

Good morning,

The Fed held at 3.75%-4% on a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting, and tech took the week's worst of it. QQQ dropped 3.04% to 690.56 while small caps bucked the tape, with IWM up 0.87%. Insiders leaned in hard: three Stewart Information directors bought $283,710, Conifer Management picked up $24.2M of Group 1 Automotive, and seven RAPP insiders cluster-bought a net $15.10M. Over in energy, DHT Holdings topped the AlphaScala model at 84/100. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The split was growth versus the rest. QQQ's 3.04% slide to 690.56 dragged the Nasdaq-heavy trade lower while SPY eased 1.26% and the Dow proxy DIA gave back 1.13%. Small caps went the other way, with IWM adding 0.87% to 279.39, a rare divergence from the large-cap selling.

Central banks set the backdrop. The FOMC held its range at 3.75%-4%, and the 10-2 dissent from Cook and Hammack pointed to a committee that isn't united on the path from here. The ECB stayed put too, keeping its deposit rate at 2.50% and flagging energy prices. FX stayed tight against the dollar: GBP/USD firmed 0.32% to 1.34, NZD/USD was the weakest major at -0.93%, and USD/JPY barely moved at 157.58.

The insider tape did the talking where price action was quiet. Beyond the Stewart and Group 1 buys, HF Sinclair CEO Franklin Myers added $1.1M of his own stock and Tether's fund lifted its Gold.com stake to 500,000 shares with a $3.9M purchase. On the model, tanker names ran the board, DHT Holdings at 84 and Tsakos Energy Navigation at 82, with Nurix Therapeutics close behind at 80.

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 690.56 ▼ -3.04% from 712.20
• SPY 755.71 ▼ -1.26% from 765.37
• DIA 517.05 ▼ -1.13% from 522.97
• IWM 279.39 ▲ +0.87% from 276.99

FX

• NZD/USD 0.5631 ▼ -0.93% from 0.5683
• EUR/GBP 0.8337 ▼ -0.45% from 0.8375
• GBP/USD 1.34 ▲ +0.32% from 1.33
• USD/CHF 0.8249 ▼ -0.32% from 0.8276
• USD/CAD 1.40 ▼ -0.32% from 1.40
• AUD/USD 0.7032 · +0.18% from 0.7019
• EUR/USD 1.12 · -0.14% from 1.12

Headline Roundup

Macro

• Fed Holds at 3.75%-4% on 10-2 Vote; Cook and Hammack Dissent (Federal Reserve FOMC statement) The Fed held at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on Oct. 28 with Cook and Hammack dissenting for a hike. Speculators were net long 15,044 DXY contracts before the vote.
• ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2.50%, Cites Energy Price Risks (ECB monetary policy decision) The ECB left its three key rates unchanged on Oct. 29, citing energy prices. Euro futures speculators were net short 134,524 contracts as of Oct. 20.

Stocks

• Three Stewart Information Directors Buy $283,710 of Stock (SEC Form 4) Directors Thomas Apel, C. Allen Bradley Jr. and William Corey Jr. bought 6,000 shares on Oct. 23, at prices from $46.82 to $48, Form 4 filings show.
• Tether Fund Buys $3.9M of Gold.com, Reaching 500,000 Shares (SEC Form 4) A 10% owner reported three purchases of Gold.com common stock at $38.96 to $39.44 a share, lifting its indirect holding from 400,000 to 500,000 shares.
• Conifer Management Buys $24.2M of Group 1 Automotive Stock (SEC Form 4) A 10% owner filed a Form 4 on Oct. 26 for 100,000 Group 1 Automotive shares bought at prices from $226 to $249.84, lifting its indirect holding 5.2%.
• HF Sinclair CEO Franklin Myers Buys $1.1 Million of Shares (SEC Form 4) Franklin Myers bought 10,000 HF Sinclair shares on Oct. 29 at a weighted average price of $110.80, lifting his direct holding 5.1% to 207,723 shares.
• TTM Technologies CEO and a Director Buy $1.34M of Stock (SEC Form 4) Director Wajid Ali bought 10,000 shares and CEO Edwin Roks 5,000 on Oct. 28 at $88.07 to $90.635 a share; Roks also bought 10,000 shares on Aug. 25.

Forex / Commodities

• EIA: US Crude Stocks Fall 1.9 Million Barrels to 410.6 Million (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report) Gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels while distillates fell 1.5 million, EIA said Oct. 28. Managed money held a net long of 36,187 WTI contracts.

Smart Money

• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE DIS
• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE AMZN
• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE MCD
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): PARTIAL_SALE ASML
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): PARTIAL_SALE STX
• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE HD
• Insider cluster: RAPP: 7 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $15.10M (90d)
• Insider cluster: STC: 5 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $357K (90d)
• Insider cluster: BBT: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $255K (90d)
• Top insider buying: RSG: insiders net +$1.38B bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: LEN: insiders net +$595.29M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: GPI: insiders net +$210.84M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.), Alpha Score 84/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 84 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score top: TEN (TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD), Alpha Score 82/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score top: NRIX (Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score top: REPX (Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): large speculators net short 57,690 contracts, 44.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: Australian Dollar (AUD): large speculators net short 128,315 contracts, 39.5% of open interest
• COT extreme: British Pound (GBP): large speculators net short 79,414 contracts, 31.3% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.