XRP Price Targets: Standard Chartered Cuts to $1.80, Range Widens

Standard Chartered cut its year-end XRP price target to $1.80 from $2.20, citing lower spot volumes and thinner retail participation in the recent rally, the bank's digital-asset research team said in a note Tuesday.

The revision places the bank's forecast below CoinMarketCap's consensus of $2.15 from 12 surveyed analysts. CoinGecko's median target sits at $2.05. The spread between the lowest call, $1.10 from Fairlead Strategies, and the highest, $3.40 from Messari, has widened to $2.30 since April, when the range was just 80 cents.

Fairlead's model weights XRP's 200-day moving average and relative-strength readings. Its $1.10 target implies roughly 5% downside from the current $1.16, assuming no catalyst emerges. The model does not assign probability to a catalyst outcome. Messari's $3.40 target is more than three times Fairlead's. It rests on two assumptions: the SEC dropping its appeal in the Ripple case and XRP reclaiming the 2021 high of $1.96 as support. Neither event has a confirmed timeline.

Standard Chartered's revision noted that XRP has added roughly 70% year-to-date. It has lagged Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana since March. The bank flagged declining decentralized-exchange volume on the XRP Ledger as a proxy for waning speculative interest. DEX volume on the network peaked at $18.1 million in January and has averaged $6.7 million a week since June, according to XRPL.services data.

Technical data also points lower. Open interest across XRP perpetuals hit 625 million tokens in mid-March. It fell to 387 million by Friday's close, exchange data compiled by Coinalyze show. Funding rates have flipped negative on Binance and Bybit for 11 of the last 14 days, meaning shorts are paying longs to hold the position.

The case for a more favorable outcome is thin. It is not empty. Ripple's legal team has requested a ruling from the Second Circuit by Oct. 15. A clear dismissal of the SEC's appeal would remove the legal overhang that has capped XRP upside since the Torres ruling. Several market-making firms in London and Dubai have discreetly sourced XRP inventory in recent weeks, three over-the-counter traders told CoinDesk. The traders spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss client activity. The accumulation suggests entities are positioning for a binary event, the traders said.

Volume does not confirm the setup. Spot turnover averaged $780 million a day in August, down from $1.4 billion in March. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger in August numbered the fewest since December 2022, according to Messari. The network is settling assets. Retail engagement has not returned.

Standard Chartered's revised target reflects that reality. XRP can rally on its own catalyst. The market structure to sustain a new range is not yet in place, the bank's note indicated.