
U.S. crude inventories fell 1.7 million barrels last week, with WTI testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83.48. Natural gas consolidates below key EMAs.
U.S. crude inventories fell 1.7 million barrels in the week ended August 2, the Energy Information Administration reported. Commercial stocks stood at 409.7 million barrels, about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization edged to 96.2%, reflecting strong summer fuel demand. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped 5.1 million barrels to 311.4 million – the lowest since 1983.
WTI crude traded near $82.10 on Tuesday, extending a rally from the July low near $67.00. The move pushed prices through the 50-day and 100-day moving averages at $81.80 and $82.47. WTI now faces a cluster of resistance: the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline at $83.48 and a descending trendline from April. A break above that zone would open the way to $88.66 and $93.71, according to technical analysis by Arslan, a finance MBA and behavioral finance researcher. Support sits at $80.34, then $77.21 and $73.43.
Brent crude traded at $88.69, also above its 50- and 100-day moving averages. The contract faces a similar descending trendline resistance and the 61.8% retracement at $87.37. A close above the trendline would improve the medium-term outlook, traders said. Resistance beyond that is $91.82, $98.03 and $105.64. Support lies at $87.37, $84.12 and $80.83.
Natural gas hovered near $2.856 on the two-hour chart, consolidating between $2.83 and $2.89 after bouncing off support at $2.83. The price remains below the 50-period EMA at $2.887 and the 100-period EMA at $2.943. A descending trendline also caps gains. Resistance levels are $2.890, $2.948 and $3.024. Support is at $2.828, $2.780 and $2.729. The RSI sits at 46.
Fundamentals for natural gas remain supported by LNG demand. The EIA forecasts U.S. LNG exports will average 17 Bcf/d in 2026, with record output underpinning global supplies despite Middle East shipping delays. The next EIA storage report is due Thursday.
The inventory drawdown and sustained demand for oil and gas have implications for inflation expectations and the dollar. A sustained rally in crude could push breakeven rates higher, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. For now, the technical levels at $83.48 for WTI and $87.37 for Brent will decide the next leg.
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