WTI Holds Near $84; Hormuz Risk, US Crude Build Pull Opposite Ways

Oil markets face two opposing forces this week. The Strait of Hormuz saw only eight ships on Tuesday, down from a typical 125-140, after Iran and Houthi attacks raised supply risk. At the same time, the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise 9.1 million-barrel crude build for the week ending August 7, a bearish counterweight to global draws.

The EIA's August 11 Short-Term Energy Outlook estimated Strait of Hormuz supply averaged 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter, compared with 21.6 million bpd in Q4 2024. Production shut-ins averaged 5.5 million bpd in July. Global inventories are expected to draw 3.8 million bpd this quarter, the EIA said.

WTI crude traded near $83.88, recovering from the $74.21 support area. Price sits above both the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages, signaling short-term buyer control, Arslan said. The RSI at 64 shows strong bullish momentum without overbought conditions. The first resistance is $84.74, followed by $86.87 and $90.04. Support lies at $81.60, with an EMA cluster near $80.50. Arslan said the $81.60 level is critical for the bullish structure. A break above $84.74 would confirm the next leg higher.

Brent crude traded at $89.48, extending its recovery after clearing a descending trendline and reclaiming both major moving averages. Price is above the 50-EMA at $86.03 and the 100-EMA at $85.36, which now act as dynamic support, Arslan said. The RSI at 64 again indicates strong momentum. Resistance levels are $91.13 and $95.23, with $99.07 further out. Support is at $86.43, with a deeper pullback possible toward the $85.40-$86.00 EMA region. Arslan is bullish on Brent within the $86.43 range; a clear break of $91.13 would open the path to $95.23.

Natural gas traded around $2.79, consolidating after breaking above the descending channel that had defined price action since late July. Price rose above the 50-EMA at $2.74, with the 100-EMA at $2.79 now acting as resistance. Bulls are defending the breakout area, Arslan said. The RSI at 59 is not overbought. First resistance is $2.81, then $2.88. Support is at $2.73, with $2.66 the next level. A break above $2.81 would continue the recovery; a break below $2.73 would negate the bullish bias, Arslan said. For more on natural gas positioning, see Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support.

The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to reach a record 111.2 Bcf/d in 2026, up from a prior estimate of 110.8 Bcf/d. LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 to 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026. October storage is expected to reach 3.98 Tcf, the highest pre-winter level in over a decade.

The EIA's weekly inventory report is due later today. The API build suggests the official data may show a similar surplus, which could cap near-term upside in crude despite the Hormuz disruption.