WTI Crude Rejects $81.40, Weighs on Canadian Dollar

The loonie tends to track crude direction. The two have moved together over 80% of trading days in the past month. Crude failed to hold its high. The CAD gave back some of its recent gains. USD/CAD had dipped to 1.3550 last week; it now sits at its 100-day moving average.

No major data releases are scheduled for the Canadian calendar until next Thursday's retail sales print. Until then, crude will likely set the tone for the pair.

Key support levels are $76.50 and $74.50, the latter marking the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $67.40–$81.31 rally. A break below the bullish trend line at $72.80 could open a move toward $70, then $65. On the upside, resistance stands at $81.50 and $84. The key hurdle is $85.