WTI oil dives 4.8% after Trump cancels strikes on Iran, as Tehran negotiates a Strait of Hormuz reopening. Brent slides below its 50-day moving average.
Alpha Score of 40 reflects weak overall profile with strong momentum, poor value, moderate sentiment. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Oil prices fell sharply Monday after President Trump called off a planned major attack on Iran, citing room for negotiation, and as Tehran pursued a temporary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude dropped 4.8 percent to $79.80 a barrel, its lowest in three weeks. Brent crude slid 4.2 percent to $84.60.
Trump said he canceled the strikes to allow more time for talks. “They lied,” he said of Iranian officials, “but they should make the deal fast, starting with the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran, meanwhile, continued mediation with Oman to secure a temporary route for vessels through the strait. Iranian foreign ministry officials said the two countries discussed a “temporary route for vessels that would ensure their safety.” The officials added that they were not negotiating directly with the United States.
Oil traders bet that Iran would announce a return of normal shipping through the strait within days, several traders said. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20 percent of global oil supply. A deal would remove the key disruptive risk that had driven crude 12 percent higher over the prior month.
WTI broke below its support zone at $81.50–$82.00 and settled under the psychologically important $80 level. That opens the path to the next support floor at $77.50–$78.00, traders said. Resistance on the upside stands at $85.50–$86.00.
Brent oil slid below its 50-day moving average at $85.05. A continued move lower would test the $82.00–$82.50 support, with a deeper leg to $77.50–$78.00 if that level fails, traders said.
Earlier, Iran had rejected Oman’s proposals for managing the strait. The turn in posture suggests the Iranian economy is under enough pressure to accept a temporary arrangement, traders said. A collapse of talks and a resumption of U.S. strikes would send oil prices sharply higher.
Natural gas pushed higher Monday, gaining 2.1 percent to $2.83 per million British thermal units, as updated weather forecasts showed cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast in the 8- to 14-day outlook. Traders said the shift raised heating demand expectations.
Gas is testing resistance at $2.75–$2.80. A break above would target the next ceiling at $3.00–$3.05. On the downside, a move below $2.70 would head toward $2.50–$2.55.
The geopolitical event calendar remains dense. Investors will watch for any formal announcement from Iran or Oman on a Hormuz deal, and for Trump’s next move if talks stall. No timetable has been set for a further U.S. decision.
Gold fell 1.3 percent to $2,327 an ounce as the dollar rebounded. Silver slid 2.1 percent to $30.13. Platinum dropped 0.4 percent to $965.
The dollar index rose 0.5 percent after the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 49.2, slightly above the 49.0 consensus, traders said.
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