WTI, Brent Hold Near Breakouts as Hormuz Risks Persist

Oil prices held near recent highs on Wednesday, with traders weighing Middle East supply risks against comfortable U.S. inventory data. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained slow after a series of attacks between Iran, the UAE and Oman, though the lack of a major escalation has capped fresh buying, several traders said.

Crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels last week, government data showed. Gasoline stocks also increased. The build suggests U.S. supply remains ample and demand may not be strong enough to sustain a rally without a real supply disruption, traders said.

WTI crude has been forming a rounding bottom above $70 on the 4-hour chart, according to technical analysis published by Muhammad Umair. A break above $87 would target $93.80 and then $97. Viewed from the May high, the pattern is more pronounced – a descending trend line running around $89. A break above that line would confirm the bottom and open the door to $105, the analysis said. The RSI is consolidating above the midline, signaling room to run on the upside. A break below $66 would invalidate the bullish setup.

On the weekly chart, WTI's spike from $66 toward $120 after the US-Iran tensions in 2020 failed to clear the descending channel resistance. The rejection sent prices back to $67. The July 2026 low formed a bottom, and the rebound now targets $100. A break above the descending channel would point toward $125-$130, and a move above $130 would target $150. The weekly RSI is rebounding off the midline, Umair wrote.

Brent crude shows stronger price action. Prices held above $80 after the June selloff, and the sharp rebound in the first week of August produced strong bullish weekly candles pointing to $100. The 50-week moving average crossed above the 200-week average, a so-called golden cross. The weekly RSI sits above the midline. A break above $100 targets $120, then $135, the analysis said.

The monthly chart shows the rally from the April 2020 low through the March 2022 peak, followed by the correction to the December 2025 low, forming a constructive base. The June 2026 dip held above $70 and reversed sharply. July's monthly candle points toward $127. A break above that level targets $160-$180. The monthly RSI rebounded from the midline alongside the $70 hold, Umair noted.

The near-term outlook depends on the Strait of Hormuz and the inventory data. WTI needs to clear $87-$89 to target $100 and $105. Brent must hold $70 to maintain bullish momentum; a break above $100 opens $120-$127. Without a major supply disruption or a clear technical breakout, the rally looks gradual.

Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.