WTI, Brent Hold EMA Support as Demand, Hormuz Risks Collide

Oil prices are holding a floor near key moving averages on August 14, with WTI crude trading at $81.22 and Brent at $86.99. The market is caught between weakening global demand and supply disruptions out of the Middle East, a clash that has left both benchmarks pinned in narrow ranges.

U.S. crude inventories rose for the first time in six months, reaching their highest level since January as exports fell. OPEC trimmed its global demand growth outlook for 2026 by 580,000 barrels per day. The IEA is more bearish, projecting a 1.6 million barrel-per-day demand contraction for the year.

Supply-side risks remain elevated. With no progress toward U.S.-Iran diplomacy, both countries claim control of the Strait of Hormuz. Only five non-container ships passed through the strait this week. The IEA expects global oil shipments to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026 if disruptions persist.

WTI sits just below the $81.60 support area, with the 50 EMA at $81.03 and the 100 EMA at $80.78 forming a cluster that underpins the recovery from the $74.38 low. RSI at 49 shows neutral momentum after the recent pullback from $84.33. Resistance levels are $84.33, $86.87, and $90.56. Support sits at $81.00-$81.60, then $77.81 and $74.38. Holding the moving average zone could allow sideways consolidation toward $84.33. A break below $80.78 would weaken the recovery and raise the likelihood of a move to $77.81.