WTI, Brent Hold EMA Support as Demand, Hormuz Risks Collide

Oil prices are holding a floor near key moving averages on August 14, with WTI crude trading at $81.22 and Brent at $86.99. The market is caught between weakening global demand and supply disruptions out of the Middle East, a clash that has left both benchmarks pinned in narrow ranges.

U.S. crude inventories rose for the first time in six months, reaching their highest level since January as exports fell. OPEC trimmed its global demand growth outlook for 2026 by 580,000 barrels per day. The IEA is more bearish, projecting a 1.6 million barrel-per-day demand contraction for the year.

Supply-side risks remain elevated. With no progress toward U.S.-Iran diplomacy, both countries claim control of the Strait of Hormuz. Only five non-container ships passed through the strait this week. The IEA expects global oil shipments to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026 if disruptions persist.

WTI sits just below the $81.60 support area, with the 50 EMA at $81.03 and the 100 EMA at $80.78 forming a cluster that underpins the recovery from the $74.38 low. RSI at 49 shows neutral momentum after the recent pullback from $84.33. Resistance levels are $84.33, $86.87, and $90.56. Support sits at $81.00-$81.60, then $77.81 and $74.38. Holding the moving average zone could allow sideways consolidation toward $84.33. A break below $80.78 would weaken the recovery and raise the likelihood of a move to $77.81.

Brent is wedged between the 50 EMA at $86.29 and the 100 EMA at $85.74, showing a bullish bias. Price is testing support at $86.67, a previous resistance level, with RSI at 49 indicating slowing momentum. If Brent falls below $85.74-$86.67, a larger downside move toward $82.06 could follow.

Natural gas trades at $2.73 on the 4-hour chart, below the 50 EMA at $2.75 and the 100 EMA at $2.79. Price remains under a descending trend line, with RSI at 45 confirming weak downside momentum without being oversold. Resistance is at $2.75, $2.80, and $2.87. Support is at $2.68, $2.62, and $2.55. Trading below $2.80 keeps the outlook bearish, and a retest of $2.68 may be imminent.

The EIA projects record dry gas production of 111.2 Bcf/d in 2026, with LNG exports averaging 17.4 Bcf/d. Storage capacity is expected to reach 3.985 Tcf by the end of October, providing a comfortable cushion. International LNG supply remains tight. India's Petronet reports Qatar has not given definite plans for September LNG shipments, with force majeure affecting 56 shipments. Buyers are replacing lost Qatari volumes from the U.S., Oman, Nigeria, and Angola.

This creates a disparate energy mix: declining demand and rising U.S. storage pressure crude prices lower, while Hormuz disruption and Qatari LNG shortages add a geopolitical premium to supply.