Kalshi and Polymarket hit record volumes in June as World Cup betting drives $44B in combined trades. The stress test is just beginning. Regulators are watching.
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The World Cup has turned prediction markets into a stress test. Kalshi saw $31 billion in notional volume in June, a 70% jump from May, according to Dune Analytics data cited by CNBC. The platform has cleared more than $1 billion a day since the tournament started on June 11. Polymarket’s international business set a record in June, with $10.8 billion in notional trading, reversing two months of declines.
Rothera, the joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, debuted last month and logged $2 billion in notional volume during June. It now holds 7% of the American prediction market, per Bank of America data cited by CNBC. The combined notional volume across the three platforms hit roughly $44 billion in June.
The volume is concentrated on a single binary event. More than $186 million has been traded on whether the U.S. will beat Belgium in Monday’s game, even though the odds of a U.S. win sit at 4.3% on Kalshi and 3% on Polymarket. That kind of skewed distribution means a small number of high-conviction bets dominate the order book.
Asaf Meir, CEO of Solidus Labs, a market integrity firm that works with Kalshi, told CNBC the World Cup is a critical moment for the platforms. Regulators and institutions are watching. “Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? Does it have enough volume?” Meir said. “The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether indeed prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment.”
A failure would not be a simple outage. The real risk is a settlement dispute, a liquidity gap, or a manipulation event that draws regulatory attention. The CFTC has already signaled interest in event contracts. A high-profile glitch during the World Cup could accelerate rulemaking.
Separately, the tournament is testing cross-border payment systems. Justin Benson, CEO of Spreedly, told PYMNTS the World Cup is “the ultimate test” for cross-border transactions. “It’s really going to highlight any cracks that you might have in your approval process.” Benson pointed to a rise in World Cup-related ticket scams as a sign that criminals are already targeting tournament demand. Merchants must distinguish between a scammer and a genuine fan buying last-minute airfare from an unfamiliar payment method. “That’s the key and that’s the trick,” he said, warning against a binary approach to fraud controls.
For prediction market traders, the watchlist is straightforward: platform uptime, withdrawal delays, and any regulatory statements from the CFTC or state regulators. The U.S.-Belgium match on Monday evening will be the largest single-event test so far. If the platforms handle the settlement cleanly, the bull case for the sector strengthens. If a glitch surfaces, the selloff in prediction-market-linked assets could be sharp.
Robinhood, as a partner in Rothera, has indirect exposure. The company’s stock market analysis page tracks the broader implications for retail trading platforms. The next few days will tell which direction the sector takes.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.