Mexico's World Cup generated only $2bn in economic impact, far below targets, with GDP contracting and USMCA uncertainty weighing. Analysts say trade certainty is the key driver.
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The World Cup filled stadiums and drew millions of fans across Mexico. It did not lift a sluggish economy facing weak investment and uncertainty over the coming review of the North American trade pact.
The tournament saw Mexico host 13 games. It fell short of official tourism targets aimed at boosting gross domestic product, which contracted in the first quarter.
The World Cup will not structurally change the Mexican economy, said Humberto Calzada, chief economist at Rankia. He called the tournament a short-term stimulus for an economy the government sees growing 1.8% to 2.8% this year. Analysts forecast 1.1%.
The economic impact was concentrated in the host cities, according to bank data. Banorte lowered its estimate of the World Cup's GDP contribution to 0.4%-0.5%, down from as high as 0.62%. Banamex put the total impact at $2 billion, about 0.1% of GDP. By comparison, Mexico received $5.6 billion in remittances in May alone.
Deloitte projected the tournament created 100,000 temporary jobs, 10% fewer than its earlier forecast. BBVA reported its household consumption indicator slipped 0.2% month-on-month in June. Spending on hotels fell 10.5% and restaurants dropped 4.9%. Entertainment spending spiked 16.5%.
The gains were uneven across cities. The Mexican Restaurant Association said half its establishments performed worse than a typical week, citing low hotel occupancy and protests in Mexico City. Passenger traffic rose slightly in Guadalajara and Monterrey in June. Traffic fell at the capital's main airport.
Analysts said the economy's main driver remains trade certainty under the USMCA, not the tournament. Companies held back investment ahead of the trade pact's review. The economy shrank 0.6% in the first quarter. The IMF recently trimmed its Mexico growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%.
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