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Wintermute: Crypto's next altseason may have fewer winners
Institutional spot OTC flow hit 72% in H1 2026, with activity concentrated in fewer tokens and fading faster. The shift suggests future altcoin rallies will be narrower.
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Institutional investors generated 72% of Wintermute's spot OTC flow in the first half of 2026, the highest share on record. The crypto market maker said capital was clustering in fewer tokens, and that altcoin rallies were becoming more selective.
In its H1 2026 OTC flow report, Wintermute said institutional counterparties accounted for 72% of spot flow across all tokens on its desk. That compares with 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of last year.
The findings suggest the next altcoin season may produce fewer winners, Wintermute said. Liquidity was concentrating in assets favored by institutions, while activity in the market's "long tail" weakened.
Between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by institutional counterparties grew by 24%. Among retail clients, the number grew by 76%. Wintermute also found that institutional activity following a surge in a token's price and volume faded after roughly one day. Retail activity typically remained elevated for about three days.
Other data providers have identified similar trends. On June 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller crypto assets had "basically disappeared." CryptoQuant data showed trading volume in Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pairs near its weakest level since 2021.