Robinhood's compression zone diverges from Coinbase's channel retracement (Alpha Score 29) and MARA's EMA convergence (Alpha Score 38). Each setup needs a distinct confirmation.
Crypto-exposed equities opened the week with Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) each falling 4% on Monday. Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), however, barely moved. The simple explanation – HOOD is less dependent on crypto trading revenue – is true but incomplete. The better market read comes from the distinct technical structures each stock occupies.
Robinhood is trading between the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $75.45 and the 0.382 Fib at $78.86. This narrow zone has contained price for multiple sessions. A daily close above $78.86 with volume opens a target ladder: $81.63 → $84.39 → $88.31, with the swing high at $93.32 as the macro target.
Four declining EMAs sit stacked above price. Until HOOD clears the 0.382 Fib and the nearest declining EMA, the path of least resistance is sideways. The compression is a setup that needs confirmation, not a buy signal.
AlphaScala rates HOOD at 30/100 (Weak), reflecting the unresolved overhead structure visible on its HOOD stock page.
Coinbase dropped 4%, pulling back from last week's push toward $222–$231 resistance. That zone has capped price since mid-2025. The ascending channel from February's $142 lows remains intact, and price is now retracing toward the channel's midline around $185–$190.
The Supertrend at $174.01 is the bull/bear line. It has not flipped yet. A daily close below $174 would break the February uptrend and shift the bias to bearish. Holding above the channel midline keeps the structure valid.
COIN's Alpha Score is 29/100 (Weak). The COIN stock page shows the same overhead resistance visible on the chart.
MARA also declined 4%, digesting last week's push to $13.62, which tagged the upper Bollinger Band. The recovery from February's $7.00 lows to that high is a +94% rally, driven by Bitcoin's (BTC) recovery above $80,000.
All four EMAs are now converging: 20 EMA $12.03, 100 EMA $10.94, 200 EMA $12.11. This cluster has not occurred since October 2025. When EMAs converge after a prolonged downtrend, it often signals a momentum shift. Convergence alone is not a buy signal; price must hold above the cluster and then break resistance.
AlphaScala scores MARA at 38/100 (Mixed), the highest of the three names. The MARA stock page reflects this transition zone.
A trader scanning the sector sees HOOD flat while COIN and MARA fall 4%. The instinct is to assume HOOD is the stronger name. The better read is that HOOD is in a tighter technical range that has not yet been tested. If Bitcoin drops another 5%, HOOD's $75.45 support will be tested just as hard as COIN's $174 line. The divergence is a timing difference, not a structural advantage.
Here is the practical confirmation framework:
The broader crypto context matters. Bitcoin's struggle to hold above $85,000 after the recent Iran-related risk-off move weakens the macro tailwind. The crypto market analysis page tracks accelerating fund outflows and a shift from dip-buying to gradual accumulation. That behavioral change makes technical levels more important because momentum is not providing a tailwind.
For now, COIN, HOOD, and MARA offer three distinct technical stories. HOOD is compressing. COIN is retracing within a channel. MARA is converging. Each requires a distinct confirmation signal before a directional bet makes sense.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.