The White House agreed on an ethics package for the CLARITY Act, removing the main Senate roadblock. Polymarket odds ticked up to 42%. The next few weeks before August recess are critical.
Alpha Score of 54 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, moderate value, weak quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The White House has agreed on an ethics package for the CLARITY Act, removing the main obstacle that has blocked the crypto market-structure bill in the Senate.
Eleanor Terrett of Fox Business reported Monday that the White House sent the ethics language to certain Senate Republicans. Industry participants told her they are hopeful the deal will clear the way for updated bill text soon.
The ethics provision has been the central fight. Senate Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren have refused to support CLARITY unless it bars the president, senior officials, and their families from profiting off crypto. That demand intensified after Trump disclosed over $1.2 billion in cryptocurrency income. Democrats called it a "corrupt bill" at a press conference last week.
If the White House has signed off on ethics language, it removes the objection that has given Democrats cover to withhold the seven-plus votes CLARITY needs to clear the 60-vote threshold.
Polymarket's "CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026" contract ticked up 12% on the news to 42%, still well below highs around 75%. Passage this year remains a long shot.
A surprise passage would matter because a lot of institutional capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting for this bill, traders said. From a price-action standpoint, it is the kind of catalyst that could put a bottom under Bitcoin and other majors, with progress alone over the coming weeks potentially sending Bitcoin back toward the $80,000 range.
The Senate faces an August recess, making the next few weeks critical for the bill's timeline.
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