What Intermediate Goods Tell Us About Upcoming CPI

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors flags a consistent pattern in Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Intermediate goods and services price changes lead CPI by a few months. The lag reflects how inventory costs, supply contracts, and margin adjustments transmit through the economy. The implication for Federal Reserve policy is direct: the current uptick in producer-side costs will arrive in consumer inflation data in the quarters ahead. This is not a theoretical exercise. The BLS data Kotok cites covers several decades. The lead-lag relationship holds across different inflation regimes, from the 1970s stagflation to the post-COVID spike. Ignoring the pipeline risks leaving portfolio duration and equity positioning exposed to a repricing that the headline CPI alone does not yet show.

Producer Costs and the CPI Lag

BLS data shows that raw and semi-finished materials, along with business-to-business services, adjust before household prices. The transmission takes several months. Producers absorb cost changes through inventories, then pass them through when contracts renew or margins shrink. When intermediate prices accelerate, CPI typically follows two to four months later. The reverse also holds during disinflation periods. For traders, the producer price index functions as a leading indicator, not a separate statistic. The Warsh Fed's 3.8% Inflation Wall Blocks Rate Cuts analysis notes that sticky inflation above 3% keeps the Fed on hold. If intermediate goods pass through, the inflation wall gets higher.

Yield Curve and Duration Exposure

A hawkish repricing directly lifts the back end of the yield curve. Long-duration bonds face two-sided risk. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is directly exposed to a repricing if inflation expectations re-anchor higher. The SCHQ ETF: Hormuz Relief Not Enough for Long Duration piece highlighted that relief rallies are vulnerable under such conditions. If intermediate goods data continues to print hot, the 10-year yield could retest levels blocked by short-covering in recent months. That compression affects equity risk premiums directly. The S&P 500 (SPY) faces headwinds as the discount rate rises, particularly for growth stocks with distant cash flows. Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities also feel the pressure.

Dollar Strength and Commodity Divergence

A higher terminal rate expectation supports the dollar on both rate differential and potential risk-off demand if growth fears accompany sticky inflation. The DXY index reflects both forces. Gold faces competing tensions. Higher real yields are negative for the metal, while a weaker growth outcome is positive. The net effect depends on whether the intermediate-goods signal is transitory or structural. Crude oil offers a similar tension. Supply-side cost pressures feed into intermediate goods, creating a feedback loop. The crude oil profile shows that these pipeline effects often lag spot price moves by two quarters. Traders should watch for signs that producer cost increases are accelerating or fading.

The Decision Point Ahead

The next CPI release will confirm or refute the intermediate-goods lead. A print above 3.0% year-over-year would strengthen the case that pipeline costs are arriving. A lower print would weaken the link and give the Fed room to cut. Traders should watch the producer price index for further confirmation of the trend. The data cycle over the next two months determines whether Kotok's lead indicator becomes consensus, and whether the Fed can cut at all in 2025. The BLS releases the Producer Price Index on 11 April, with the March CPI following on 10 April. Those two reports will define the inflation trajectory for the second quarter.