VIX Seasonal Pattern Points to Late-2026 Volatility Risk

The CBOE Volatility Index's seasonal pattern suggests market turbulence could return later in 2026, based on a chart shared by a technical strategist. The VIX tends to trough in the summer months before climbing through autumn and into year-end, a rhythm that has held in seven of the past ten years.

That pattern matters because the VIX is currently hovering near its seasonal low. If history repeats, the index could rise from current levels into the fourth quarter, reflecting higher implied volatility expectations for S&P 500 options.

The strategist's chart overlays the VIX's average seasonal path against the current year's trajectory. The two lines diverge in September, with the historical average climbing while the 2026 line remains flat. A catch-up move would push the VIX above 20 by December, the strategist said.

For context, the VIX closed at 14.8 on Friday, near the bottom of its 12-month range. A sustained move above 18 would confirm the seasonal shift, the strategist added.

The S&P 500, meanwhile, continues to track its long-term trendline, with the index holding above its 200-day moving average. The divergence between the equity index and the VIX – stocks calm, options pricing in future risk – is the setup the strategist is watching.

CBOE (Cboe Global Markets, Inc.) carries an Alpha Score of 64, reflecting moderate sentiment among the factors the model tracks. The VIX itself is a CBOE product, and the exchange operator benefits when volatility trading volumes rise.

The next test for the pattern comes in September, when seasonal data shows the VIX typically begins its autumn ascent.