Vance Takes Lead on Iran-Ukraine Talks, Sidelines Witkoff

The Iran memorandum of understanding, initialed by US and Iranian officials and set for formal signing Friday in Switzerland, includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund. The fund is contingent on a final settlement, an extension of the 60-day ceasefire, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A person briefed on the talks told the Financial Times the money would come from companies, not governments, with interest from European and Asian businesses and American companies too. Vance confirmed the figure in his CBS interview.

Traders said a successful Iran deal would lower the geopolitical risk premium on oil, pressuring crude prices and boosting airlines and consumer goods stocks while dimming demand for defense names. The Vanchorage strategy also signals a potential shift in US-Russia relations. If Putin follows the Iranian lead and negotiates with Vance, the Ukraine conflict could enter a new phase. That scenario would affect European energy companies tied to Russian supply and banks exposed to reconstruction financing.

Russian Security Council members, including Chief of the General Staff Admiral Igor Kostyukov, former president Dmitry Medvedev, and Lavrov, have concluded that the bribery schemes run by Dmitriev, Witkoff and Kushner will fail. The trust-in-Trump strategy failed because Trump cannot deliver a US security guarantee in Europe, the sources said. The Vanchorage strategy is expected to gain strength after the November Congressional elections and in the race for the presidential succession.

The MoU signing on Friday will be the first test. Vance must translate the 60-day ceasefire into a permanent settlement that ensures Iran halts nuclear enrichment and reopens the Strait of Hormuz.