VP Vance said 'good progress' on Iran. Ship tracking shows strait not open, IAEA access blocked. Uranium dilution reversible. Oil risk premium stays until Switzerland talks.
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Vice President Vance said the US has made "a lot of good progress" in talks with Iran. The administration added that the Strait of Hormuz is open for shipping. It also said IAEA inspections on Iran's uranium levels could start "as soon as today."
Those details undercut the claims. Independent ship tracking has not confirmed open passage through the strait, according to Vance. IAEA inspectors have not had access to Iranian nuclear sites since February 2026. The uranium Iran holds is being diluted on-site, not shipped out of the country. That process is technically reversible.
That gap matters for oil markets and the currencies that track them. AlphaScala's earlier report on the US-Iran truce noted that oil supply uncertainty keeps CAD and NOK in limbo. If the strait is not fully open, tanker insurance costs stay elevated. That keeps a risk premium in crude. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone both tend to strengthen when oil supply faces disruption.
A specific technical detail Vance cited points to a risk. Iran is diluting uranium on-site. The material remains in the country. Even if IAEA inspectors eventually return, the uranium can be re-enriched quickly. The nuclear file is not closed.
Markets have priced in some probability of a truce. The dollar has rallied against the franc and the yen on expectations of lower geopolitical risk. If the talks stall or the US claims prove exaggerated, that dollar move could reverse.
Switzerland talks in the coming days or weeks are supposed to produce a timetable for IAEA access. Without a verifiable mechanism, the oil risk premium stays in place. Two facts have not changed: the strait passage is unconfirmed by tracking data, and IAEA inspectors remain locked out. The uranium is on Iranian soil, diluted but reversible.
Those talks are scheduled. IAEA inspectors have not set foot in Iranian nuclear facilities since February 2026.
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