US strikes near Strait of Hormuz on May 25 hit during Doha talks. Bitcoin stays in $65K-$78K range, with prediction markets and Iranian crypto outflows as key signals.
Alpha Score of 45 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, weak quality, weak sentiment.
US Central Command carried out self-defense strikes against missile launch sites and Iranian boats in southern Iran on May 25, targeting positions near the Strait of Hormuz. The military action landed while American and Iranian diplomats were actively negotiating in Doha, a juxtaposition that sent a jolt through global risk markets, crypto included.
Bitcoin has been trading in a range between roughly $65K and $78K through April and May 2026. The strikes hit that range with the kind of whiplash traders have come to expect when “self-defense strikes” and “peace talks” appear in the same sentence. The immediate question is whether this is a one-off action or the start of a broader campaign that breaks the range.
CENTCOM said the strikes targeted missile launch sites and mine-laying boats operating in southern Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has been at the center of tensions for months.
The military action followed a ceasefire established on April 8, 2026, which itself came after a campaign of US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Iran complicated matters further by claiming it had downed a US drone. President Trump, for his part, struck an optimistic tone about the Doha negotiations.
The timing is not accidental. It signals that the US is willing to use force even as it negotiates, a posture that keeps the threat of escalation alive. For crypto traders, the diplomatic calendar is now the primary catalyst for price direction.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint. A sustained disruption would lift energy prices, which historically correlates with a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions. For Bitcoin, that is a double negative: higher oil means higher inflation expectations, which reduce the case for rate cuts, which in turn pressure speculative assets. Traders should watch the Brent crude price as a secondary indicator. If oil breaks above its recent range, crypto will likely follow risk assets lower before any safe-haven bid emerges.
Throughout April and May, Bitcoin’s price movements have tracked geopolitical headlines with surprising fidelity. Dips have coincided with strike threats or the rejection of peace proposals. Recoveries have followed de-escalation signals and progress in negotiations. The $65K-to-$78K range tells the story of a market caught between fear and hope.
When strikes escalate, the initial reaction tends to be a sell-off as traders de-risk. If those strikes are followed by diplomatic signals, or by prediction markets pricing in a resolution, buyers step back in quickly. Bitcoin continues to function as both a speculative risk asset and a perceived safe haven, sometimes in the same trading session.
Ahead of the Doha talks, the odds of a near-term peace deal climbed in prediction markets, which supported modest gains for BTC and broader digital assets. Traders are increasingly treating prediction market data as a leading indicator rather than noise.
Outflows of over $10 million from Iranian-linked crypto wallets were reported in early March 2026, following US strikes at the time. Iranian entities have reportedly been using cryptocurrency networks to move funds as traditional financial channels tighten under intensified sanctions. The scale and timing of those outflows, clustered around periods of military escalation, suggest that crypto infrastructure is playing a measurable role in how sanctioned nations navigate financial restrictions.
The sanctions-evasion dimension is the longer-term risk to watch. The $10 million in outflows reported in March was notable enough to draw attention. Repeated patterns of that size, especially timed around military operations, could attract a regulatory response affecting trading volumes across the ecosystem.
For traders, a sustained escalation could trigger not just a risk-off move but also a structural shift in how exchanges and regulators treat Iranian-linked activity. Any new sanctions or compliance requirements would hit liquidity first, then price.
For now, the Doha talks remain the key variable. The talks are the single most important catalyst for breaking the $65K-$78K range. Traders who are not monitoring the diplomatic calendar alongside their charts are flying blind.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a geopolitical flashpoint; it is the world’s most important oil chokepoint. A sustained disruption would lift energy prices, which historically correlates with a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions. For Bitcoin, that is a double negative: higher oil means higher inflation expectations, which reduce the case for rate cuts, which in turn pressure speculative assets.
Traders should watch the Brent crude price as a secondary indicator. If oil breaks above its recent range, crypto will likely follow risk assets lower before any safe-haven bid emerges.
For those tracking broader risk, Southern Company (SO) carries an Alpha Score of 45/100, reflecting mixed signals in a sector often correlated with geopolitical energy shocks. While not a direct crypto play, the utility sector’s sensitivity to oil prices and regulatory shifts makes it a useful cross-check for the macro environment.
The May 25 strikes have reset the clock on the Doha talks. The market now expects either a peace deal or a broader escalation within weeks. Bitcoin’s range will break when the diplomatic outcome becomes clear.
Traders should set alerts on prediction market odds for a Doha agreement. A move above 70% probability would be a strong buy signal for BTC. A drop below 30% would signal a likely break of the range to the downside.
The $10 million outflow signal from March is a trailing indicator. Any new reports of Iranian-linked wallet activity in the coming days would be a red flag. That data is harder to track in real time, so monitoring on-chain analytics platforms is worthwhile.
The Strait of Hormuz strikes have not broken the range yet. They have narrowed the window for a resolution. The next two weeks of Doha talks will determine whether Bitcoin holds $65K or tests $78K and beyond. For a broader perspective on crypto market dynamics, see our crypto market analysis. For specific asset details, check the Bitcoin (BTC) profile and Ethereum (ETH) profile.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.