US Small Businesses Are Confident, but Most Wait on Key Moves

Two-thirds of small and midsize US business owners are postponing hiring and expansion until they get clearer signals on tariffs and regulation, according to Columbia Bank's 2026 Business Barometer.

Hesitation aside, 91% of the 300-plus respondents said they expect productivity gains over the next 12 months, and 81% forecast higher profitability. Cost reduction remains a top priority for 60%.

The survey captures a common dynamic: business owners see opportunity but are not acting on it yet. Tariff and trade policy were the most-cited source of uncertainty, followed by tax regulation and economic volatility.

For investors, the barometer signals that demand for small-business loans and commercial leases may stay subdued in the near term. Banks that lend to SMBs and staffing agencies all depend on the confidence-to-spending cycle. The survey's 65% hesitation figure suggests that cycle has not started.

Columbia Bank said the barometer is meant to gauge near-term sentiment among privately held businesses, a segment that accounts for nearly half of U.S. private-sector employment. The results show the gap between rising confidence and delayed action.

The survey was conducted in early 2026. Columbia plans a follow-up in the second half of the year to track whether policy clarity changes the spending outlook.