US small business optimism hits 99.8, strongest since August 2025

Small businesses continue to face difficulties finding suitable workers. Persistent labor shortages can place upward pressure on wages and operating costs while also potentially limiting the ability of businesses to respond to stronger demand.

Hiring was not the only area showing greater confidence. Plans for capital expenditures also improved, supporting the broader increase in optimism. Greater willingness to invest is particularly important because capital spending decisions tend to reflect business owners' expectations about future economic conditions. An increase in investment plans therefore suggests that more businesses are becoming comfortable committing resources to expansion, equipment and other productive capacity.

The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased 2 points in July to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The rise was driven primarily by more business owners expressing uncertainty over whether it is a good time to expand and by changes in capital expenditure plans.

The headline optimism index is now above its long-term average, hiring plans have strengthened, and capital expenditure expectations have improved. Taken together, these figures paint a generally positive picture of the small-business sector.