US military aided 660M barrels through Strait of Hormuz since May

The U.S. military has helped tankers move more than 660 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, Central Command told CNBC this week. Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesperson, said U.S. forces have assisted roughly 1,300 commercial vessels over the same period.

"Multiple routes remain free and open for commercial transit," Hawkins said in a statement Thursday.

By Central Command's own figures, at least 160 million barrels transited the strait in the past three weeks alone. The military reported on July 29 that it had already aided 500 million barrels since May. That pace implies more than 7 million barrels per day, far below the roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and products that passed through Hormuz before the conflict. Still, the volumes show a substantial flow despite Iranian threats.

Exact daily exit numbers are disputed. U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday that about 10 million barrels per day have left the strait in recent weeks. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Aug. 11 that the seven-day average had climbed to nearly 9 million. Private trackers put the figure lower. Windward, a maritime intelligence firm, estimated that crude oil exports through Hormuz averaged about 5 million barrels per day in July, up from 4 million in June and 1.6 million in May. August volumes are expected to rise further, said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

"My assessment is that it's scaling and it's scaling quickly despite the fact that Iran is placing enormous pressure on maritime security," Bockmann said. "The Gulf states have got U.S. military protection – that's not a secret."

Tracking is complicated by wartime conditions. Ships often transit at night while satellite imagery is taken in the morning, said Bridget Diakun, maritime intelligence and research director at Lloyd's List. "There's a lot of unknowns," she said at a Thursday briefing. Wright acknowledged that private businesses likely undercount, because ships move covertly through the waterway. He said the Department of Energy, working with the military, maintains the best available data.

The security picture remains contested. Iran said Tuesday it has closed Hormuz until the U.S. meets its obligations under the interim peace deal signed June 17. President Donald Trump has insisted the strait is open and under U.S. control. For months the waterway has been split into two shipping lanes. The U.S. military escorts vessels through a southern route along Oman's coast and maintains a naval blockade against Iranian ports. Tehran urges ships to use a northern route through its territorial waters or risk attack.

"It's a contested security situation in the Strait of Hormuz," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, one of the world's largest shipping trade associations. The strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. The U.S. holds more sway near Oman, Iran near its own coast, Larsen said. "But both sides are still able to project power on either side of the strait. It's not really possible for either side to completely defend their own interests."

At least 17 commercial ships came under attack in and around the strait in July and August, according to the International Maritime Organization. Four sailors died in those attacks and more than a dozen were injured. Yet tankers that make the journey earn $500,000 a day, Bockmann said. Seafarers get double or triple their normal pay.

"It's a very intense, serious operation to get the oil out – high risk, high profit," she said.