
The US unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, with leisure and hospitality shedding 59,400 jobs over two months. Inflation and price volatility are weighing on consumer spending, economists say. July CPI due next week.
The US labor market posted its first monthly job loss since February, shedding 23,000 positions in July, as two consumer-facing industries that had been driving growth reversed course. Leisure and hospitality and retail together lost 59,400 jobs, following a 43,000 decline in leisure and hospitality in June and a 3,700 drop in retail.
The weakness in services that had been the engine of the post-pandemic recovery is fading, economists said. Employment in food services and drinking places, as well as arts and entertainment, contributed to the sector's second straight monthly decline. Accommodation employment ticked back up after a drop in June.
One culprit is inflation weighing on wallets. ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud said consumers are responding to price volatility by cutting discretionary spending, including dining out, which results in employers slowing their hiring. "The price of going out in LA has become very, very, very high for a one-and-a-half-hour dinner," said Ariel Kashfian, a diner. "You get more bang for your buck having people over at your house."
Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, said the drop in spending-focused industries is more concerning because Indeed's data showed little difference between World Cup hosting and non-hosting cities. He said it "could maybe be a sign of some of the pressures that households are facing with higher prices from gas and just general inflation right now." He noted weakness in these consumer-facing sectors "is something that potentially is foreboding for the economy."
On the other side of the consumer balance sheet, wage growth was anemic. Average hourly earnings barely budged over the month, and year-over-year wage growth cooled to its lowest level since 2021. Inflation outpaced wage growth for the three months between April and June, per Friday's revised numbers.
The jobs data sets up next week's July inflation report as a key test. If inflation remains elevated while wage growth slows, households in lower-income brackets face mounting pressure. "When we look at the majority of the consumer base in the US, middle- and low-income households, that's where we're seeing a lot of affordability challenges," Bachaud said.
July's CPI figures will be released next week. For broader context on how labor-market shifts affect asset prices, see our market analysis.
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