
Continuing claims fell alongside the headline print. Economists said the labor market shows no sign of cracking. The dollar rallied, and short-term Treasury yields rose.
US jobless claims dropped to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the lowest reading since early 2023. The print undershot the 212,000 consensus estimate by a wide margin. The prior week's figure was revised up to 209,000 from 208,000. The four-week moving average fell to 207,500, down 7,250 from the previous week.
Continuing claims edged down to 1.796 million in the week ended July 11, a drop of 2,000. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%. The four-week average of continuing claims also declined. Layoffs remain scarce, and workers who lose their jobs are finding new ones without long gaps, economists said.
The report lands in a week where the market has been debating the timing of the first Fed rate cut. A reading this low lowers the odds of a September move, traders said. The dollar climbed against the euro and the yen. It extended the bid seen after the BOJ hike last week, covered in Dollar Holds above JPY 160 after BOJ Hike. Short-term Treasury yields rose. Traders pushed out bets on a rate cut.
Futures pricing late Thursday showed a roughly 10% probability of a cut in September, down from about 20% a day earlier.
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