
The University of Michigan sentiment index rose to 55.2 in July, topping estimates. One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2%, the lowest since December 2025, supporting the dollar.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 55.2 in July, a sharp rebound from the 49.5 reading in June and above the 54.0 median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The improvement was broad-based, with both current conditions and expectations recovering from the lowest levels since the survey's current methodology began.
Current conditions climbed to 54.8 from 47.7, while expectations rose to 55.4 from 50.7. The preliminary reading had been 54.4, and the final revision added 0.8 points – a larger upward adjustment than the typical 0.3-0.5 point change.
One-year inflation expectations slipped to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, the lowest since December 2025. The five-year outlook held steady at 3.3%. The decline in near-term inflation expectations gives the Federal Reserve room to move at a measured pace, traders said.
Fed Governor Michelle Logan said earlier this week she favors raising rates, arguing inflation is not on a sustainable path toward the 2% target. The sentiment data reinforces that view, traders said. The Employment Cost Index, also released Friday, showed compensation costs rose 0.9% in the second quarter, above the 0.8% estimate and signaling continued wage pressure.
The dollar strengthened after the data, with the yen and euro both losing ground. Yields on the two-year Treasury note, which track rate expectations, ticked up. Traders said the combination of firmer sentiment, easing inflation expectations, and rising wages keeps the Fed on a tightening bias.
The survey was conducted between July 1 and July 28, capturing the period after the June CPI print and before the July FOMC meeting. The next policy decision is scheduled for July 30-31.
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