Uranium runs hot as BofA slashes forecasts everywhere else

BofA's commodities team cut 32 price objectives across its coverage on Monday, with 21 in precious metals and nine in base metals and steel combined. The bank lowered its 2026 forecasts for most raw materials. The exception: uranium, which BofA named its top conviction call for 2026.

Precious metals took the heaviest revisions. Gold, silver and platinum targets were all marked down on expectations of a stronger dollar and higher real rates persisting into next year. Base metals were hit by slower industrial demand out of China. Steel forecasts were trimmed on weak construction data.

Uranium sits on the other side of that trade. BofA's team pointed to structural deficits in primary supply and a wave of reactor restarts and new-builds across Asia and Eastern Europe. The bank expects spot uranium to climb toward $90 a pound over the next 18 months, a level last touched in 2007.

The call comes months after RBC Raises Cameco Price Target to C$175 on Nuclear Demand, reflecting a broader consensus among sell-side analysts that nuclear fuel is entering a multi-year upcycle. Cameco, the largest listed uranium producer, has been a direct beneficiary. The stock is up roughly 40% year to date, outpacing every major commodity equity.

BofA's uranium conviction puts the metal ahead of gold, copper and crude oil in the bank's 2026 ranking. That is a notable shift for a team that spent most of 2024 overweight on energy and precious metals. The bank now sees uranium as the commodity least correlated to a broad macro slowdown, tied instead to a specific supply-demand imbalance that takes years to resolve.

Uranium supply has been constrained since the Fukushima disaster shut reactors and idled mines. Even with restarts, new output remains years away. The US and European push for nuclear energy as a baseload clean-power source has accelerated contracting, pushing utility demand well above spot availability. BofA said the physical uranium market is already in deficit, with inventories drawn down to the lowest in a decade.

For traders watching the sector, the key question is whether spot prices can sustain a rally given the concentration of producers. Cameco controls roughly 15% of global mine supply. A production outage or delayed restart at its Cigar Lake mine would tighten the market further. The bank modeled a $10-a-pound premium above its base case if that scenario plays out.

BofA's next full commodities outlook is scheduled for release in early 2026. The uranium call will be the one to watch, the bank said, given the gap between consensus expectations and the actual supply trajectory.