
Median pay growth eased to 4.3% in June, while regular earnings held at 3.4% for a third month, the weakest since 2020. The BOE's next rate decision is August 1.
UK wage growth continued to moderate in June, while payroll employment fell for another month, early estimates from the Office for National Statistics showed. The number of payrolled employees dropped by 4,000 from May and was down 71,000, or 0.2%, from a year earlier. Median monthly pay growth eased to 4.3% year-on-year from 4.6% in May, extending a gradual cooling trend that has been underway since 2025.
The broader three-month data through May confirmed the pattern. Regular earnings, excluding bonuses, held at 3.4% for a third consecutive period, the weakest since late 2020. That pace marks a sharp slowdown from the 5.9% recorded in early 2025. Total earnings, including bonuses, rose 4.3% over the same period.
The employment rate edged up to 75.1% over the quarter, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% from the prior three months. The data suggest the labour market is still absorbing workers without triggering faster wage demands, even as hiring slows.
The Bank of England meets next on August 1. The wage numbers will feed into the Monetary Policy Committee's assessment of domestic inflation pressures. While median pay growth at 4.3% remains above the level consistent with the 2% inflation target, the direction of travel is toward easing. The forex market analysis around this release focuses on whether the wage data open the door for a rate cut in the coming months.
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