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UK RICS House Price Balance Drops to -34%, Misses Forecast by 9 Points
UK RICS Housing Price Balance at -34% in April, far below the -25% forecast, signals accelerating price declines. The next BoE rate decision hinge is the upcoming CPI print.
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The UK RICS Housing Price Balance dropped to -34% in April, missing the consensus estimate of -25% by a substantial margin. The survey, a net balance of surveyors reporting rising versus falling house prices, points to an acceleration of price declines across the UK housing market. For sterling traders, the data injects fresh doubt into the narrative that the Bank of England can hold rates steady while the economy stabilizes.
RICS Balance at -34%: Surveyors Report Widening Price Declines
The headline number is straightforward: more surveyors are seeing price falls than rises, and the gap is widening. A reading of -34% means that, on net, 34% more respondents reported falling prices than rising ones. That is a sharp deterioration from the -25% forecast and suggests that the spring selling season is failing to lift the market. The simple read is that higher mortgage rates are still biting, and buyer demand remains weak. This is negative for the UK economic outlook and, by extension, for the pound.
Key facts from the release:
- -34%: actual net balance of surveyors reporting price falls, significantly worse than the -25% consensus.
- -25%: the expected reading, indicating economists underestimated the drag from elevated borrowing costs.
- The wide miss signals that the housing market is losing momentum faster than anticipated, with the spring season unable to provide a counterweight.