Ubhar Capital Q1 2026 Forecasts: Saudi Financials and Industrials in Focus
Ubhar Capital has released its Q1 2026 profit forecasts for key Saudi firms, projecting a 5% earnings gain for Al Rajhi Bank and a 42% recovery for SABIC. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco is expected to see a slight 2% decline in net income to SAR 104.2 billion.
Earnings Outlook for Saudi Equities
Ubhar Capital projects a shifting earnings environment for major Saudi Arabian entities in Q1 2026, signaling a period of earnings recalibration across the financial and industrial sectors. The brokerage anticipates that Al Rajhi Bank will report net income of SAR 4.97 billion, reflecting a 5% year-over-year increase. This growth trajectory contrasts with the broader banking sector, which remains sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and credit growth mandates within the Kingdom.
Beyond the banking sector, the forecast provides a granular look at industrial and petrochemical performance. The brokerage expects Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) to post net income of SAR 1.05 billion, a significant recovery of 42% compared to the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco is projected to see net income reach SAR 104.2 billion, a slight 2% dip year-over-year, as oil price volatility continues to exert pressure on upstream margins.
Sector Performance Breakdown
The following table outlines the key earnings projections for the firms covered by Ubhar Capital for Q1 2026:
| Company | Q1 2026 Profit Forecast (SAR) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 104.2 Billion | -2% |
| Al Rajhi Bank | 4.97 Billion | +5% |
| SABIC | 1.05 Billion | +42% |
| Saudi Telecom Co (STC) | 3.32 Billion | +4% |
Market Implications for Traders
These projections highlight a divergence in growth drivers. The expected recovery in SABIC earnings suggests a bottoming out in the petrochemical cycle, which could influence stock market analysis for regional industrial plays. Traders should note that while banks like Al Rajhi are showing resilience through margin expansion, the slight contraction in Aramco’s bottom line serves as a reminder of the sensitivity to global crude benchmarks, specifically Brent and WTI.
For investors, the key variable remains the correlation between Saudi equity performance and global energy pricing. If Aramco’s earnings underperform these estimates, it could trigger a wider sell-off in the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI), as the company represents a massive portion of the index weighting. Conversely, a beat in the industrial sector could provide a hedge against energy-driven weakness.
What to Watch
Market participants should monitor the actual credit growth figures released by the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) alongside these earnings prints. If credit demand softens, the current bullish outlook for Al Rajhi Bank may face downward revisions in subsequent quarters. Additionally, watch for any commentary from SABIC leadership regarding inventory levels and downstream demand in China, which remains the primary catalyst for petrochemical price discovery.
Traders should position for volatility in the energy-heavy components of the index until the official Q1 data confirms whether the predicted industrial recovery is outpacing the macro-level energy demand slowdown.
AI-drafted from named primary sources (exchange feeds, SEC filings, named news wires) and reviewed against AlphaScala editorial standards. Every price, earnings figure, and quote traces to a specific source.