
Germany's one-year crypto holding period faces two competing reforms. On a €100,000 gain, the gap between them is €21,100. No law exists yet.
Two models for taxing crypto in Germany are circulating. On a €100,000 gain held past twelve months, they are €21,100 apart. As of 12 August 2026, no law and not even a ministry draft on crypto taxation exists.
Under section 23 of the German Income Tax Act, crypto assets count as "other economic goods." A private sale is taxable only when fewer than twelve months passed between purchase and disposal. Sell earlier and the gain is added to ordinary income at rates up to 45% plus the solidarity surcharge. Sell later and the gain is not taxed at all. The Federal Fiscal Court confirmed in February 2023 (case IX R 3/22) that crypto falls under this rule, the same one that applies to physical gold or a classic car.
The finance ministry's line is that crypto would be lifted out of private disposals and treated like interest, dividends and stock gains, at a flat withholding rate of 25% plus the 5.5% solidarity surcharge on that tax. That yields 26.375%. Church tax pushes it near 28%, depending on the federal state. No legal text exists for this model. Everything rests on a budget document and the finance minister's public statements. The open questions include whether the €1,000 saver's allowance would apply, how losses could be offset, and whether crypto exchanges would become paying agents that withhold tax at source.
The alternative model exists as finished statutory language. The bill from the Green parliamentary group carries the number 21/5752, dated 5 May 2026. Article 1 number 1 inserts a new sentence into section 23: "The one-year deadline in sentence 1 does not apply to disposals of crypto assets." Crypto would remain an "other economic good." The explanatory memorandum states the consequence plainly: gains would be taxed "regardless of the holding period, on disposal, at the personal income tax rate." Depending on other income, that is up to 45% plus the solidarity surcharge.
The bill was rejected in the finance committee on 20 May 2026. Only Die Linke supported it. The Social Democrats voted against it because they wanted to wait for their own finance minister's proposal. The text is dead as a vehicle yet alive as a blueprint: it is the only fully drafted statutory language anyone has produced on this question.
The arithmetic on a €100,000 gain after more than twelve months, with no church tax and no other private disposals, looks like this. Under the ministry's model, €26,375. Under the bill at the 42% marginal rate, €44,310. At the 45% top rate, €47,475. The gap at the top rate is €21,100.
The solidarity surcharge behaves differently in the two models. On the flat withholding tax it is levied without any threshold. On assessed income tax it only kicks in above a threshold that most taxpayers no longer cross. At the 42% and 45% marginal rates the threshold is exceeded, so the surcharge applies. On smaller gains and lower other income the arithmetic changes. That is why the blanket claim "crypto is about to get more expensive" is worth so little.
The rate difference is clear. Stock gains face 25% plus surcharge. The bill applies personal rates up to 45% plus surcharge. That is not parity; it is a penalty of up to 21.1 percentage points.
Loss offsetting differs. Losses from private disposals under section 23 may only be netted against gains from other private disposals. They sit in their own narrow bucket and cannot be set against interest or dividends. Under the section 20 model, crypto losses would join the much wider capital-income bucket.
Withholding also differs. Section 23 has no withholding mechanism by design. Every single disposal has to be declared, with acquisition date, cost basis and proceeds. The section 20 model could in principle withhold at source, only through a domestic paying agent. How that would work for exchanges based elsewhere in the EU appears in neither document.
The most revealing passage of the bill is in the reasoning, not the statutory text. The drafters explain why singling out crypto is justified: "The provision is appropriate because other economic goods such as physical gold, antiques, artworks, historic vehicles or foreign currencies are used for speculative gains to a considerably lesser extent." The bill does not clean up the system. It removes one asset class and justifies that with an assumption about how investors behave. That is where the constitutional exposure sits. Germany's Article 3 equality clause requires an objective reason for unequal treatment. Whether a behavioural assumption qualifies would be for the courts to decide. The same section states that crypto assets have "not proven themselves as a digital equivalent to gold and other precious metals."
The reasoning also contains a claim that does not survive checking. It says Germany is "almost the only country within the European Union" that exempts gains after a short holding period. Portugal exempts after 365 days and taxes shorter holdings at 28%. Czechia has exempted disposals after three years since the 2025 tax year. Luxembourg applies a six-month speculative period. Holding-period exemptions are not the German anomaly the bill describes.
The bill's application clause turns solely on when an asset was acquired. The new rules would first apply to disposals of assets "acquired or created after 31 December 2025." The bill is dated 5 May 2026. The cut-off was more than four months in the past when the text was introduced. The reasoning says so openly: the new rules apply to crypto acquired from 1 January 2026 because for those assets "the one-year holding period existing until the law enters into force has not yet expired." The drafters lean on a 2010 ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court, which held that the "mere possibility of collecting gains tax-free at a later date" creates no legally protected position.
There is a gap the bill does not address. Under the finance ministry's circular of 6 March 2025, holding periods for identical crypto assets are determined asset by asset where possible and otherwise first-in-first-out, wallet by wallet. The bill writes that consumption order into law only for foreign currency amounts, not for crypto. With an acquisition-based cut-off, the protected older holdings would in case of doubt be consumed first. How that interacts with the political promises of grandfathering is a separate story.
The argument that turns the debate on its head comes from the conservative side. On 31 July 2026, CDU member of parliament Olav Gutting spelled out what the ministry's model does to short-term sellers. Today, someone selling inside the one-year window pays their personal rate of up to 45%. Under the section 20 model it would be a flat 25% plus surcharge. The reform would therefore relieve the high-earning day trader and burden the long-term holder who could previously sell tax-free after twelve months. That is the opposite of the stated intention, and it holds whatever you think of the holding period itself.
The distance between the lowest and the highest revenue estimate is a factor of 38. That is no longer estimation uncertainty; it means nobody knows the order of magnitude.
Two qualifications matter. The Austrian finance ministry reports around €33.84 million of capital gains tax from crypto for 2024, the total collected since service providers began withholding on 1 January 2024. It is not the isolated yield of Austria's 2022 abolition of its holding period, so it functions as a ceiling on that yield rather than a measurement. Scaled to Germany by population it gives roughly €300 million, and that stays a ceiling. Austria also shows what grandfathering looks like in practice, because holdings bought before March 2021 stayed outside the new regime.
Second, the €11.4 billion estimate. On 15 March 2026 the Bitcoin Bundesverband published an open letter with 15 questions about the estimate, addressed to Blockpit and to the study's author Co-Pierre Georg. The letter covers data provenance, sample representativeness, extrapolation method and the absence of error margins. Its core line: the greater the political impact of a number, the higher the standard of transparency it has to meet. To our knowledge the questions remain unanswered. The path that number travelled is instructive. In the finance committee session of 20 May 2026 the Greens cited the study and its €11.4 billion, then halved the amount in their own calculation and wrote "at least about €5 billion" into the bill. The bill gives no reason for the halving.
Two threads reach beyond Germany. The bill's own reasoning points to the European Parliament's proposal for the 2028 to 2034 budget framework, which includes a levy based on a uniform rate on capital gains from crypto assets as a possible new EU own resource. Germany's domestic argument is being made with one eye on Brussels. The second thread is data. Under DAC8, centralised crypto service providers in the EU have been collecting reportable information since 1 January 2026, with the first exchange of data scheduled for September 2027. Whatever rate a country lands on, the visibility question is already settled. Self-custodied holdings sit outside that reporting net rather than outside the tax law.
None of this produces an instruction. Anyone handing you one knows the statutory text no better than everyone else does. Three sober points remain.
Acquisition records are the bottleneck in every scenario. If the deadline survives, they prove the exemption. If it goes, they establish the gain. If grandfathering arrives, the acquisition date decides the treatment of every single lot. Export the transaction histories from your trading venues while the accounts are open and store them off the platform. Germany's filing deadlines do not wait for the political process. Holdings on a hardware wallet need their address mapping documented by you.
Selling as a precaution is a bet on an unknown rule. Selling today to get ahead of a cut-off date nobody has defined can trigger a tax that holding would never have caused. That is an observation, not a recommendation in the other direction.
Watch the wording, not the headline. The two models differ on rate, on loss offsetting, on withholding and on the cut-off date. Any report that does not say which model it is describing is not telling you what you need to know.
The working draft of the Annual Tax Act 2026 of 13 July 2026 contains nothing on the subject. A provision could still be added before the cabinet stage or later in the parliamentary process.
Drafted by a large language model from the source reporting linked above, then screened by automated publishing checks. It is not read by a journalist before publication. Some articles cite our Alpha Score. Verify prices and figures against the original source. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.