Trump's Ethics Backing Lifts CLARITY Act Odds to 43%

President Donald Trump supported new ethics restrictions for senior federal officials, a move that boosted the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Polymarket traders now price a 43% chance of the bill passing in 2026, up from roughly 31% earlier in the week. Trading volume on the contract stands at $2.06 million.

Industry sources said the White House reached an agreement on the ethics package late Monday. The proposed terms would restrict the president, vice president, lawmakers and other senior federal officials from earning money through digital asset businesses while in office.

White House staff circulated draft language to a group of Senate Republicans after weeks of private talks, the people said. The revised text has not been entered into the public record. Senate Democrats have not reviewed the final wording. Democrats had previously required enforceable conflict-of-interest rules as a condition for providing the votes needed to pass the bill on the Senate floor.

Trump met Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno last week to discuss the unresolved ethics dispute. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt also joined the negotiations. The meeting ended without an agreement. Talks continued afterward.

The later circulation of draft language marked a change from the uncertainty reported earlier Monday. The shift followed a sharp fall in market expectations during the earlier ethics deadlock.

Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack said the negotiations also produced stronger customer protection measures. He said the revisions added tougher safeguards for digital asset users, though the final wording has not been published, leaving the scope of those protections unclear. Negotiators also discussed disclosures, insider trading controls, custody standards and measures addressing failures similar to FTX, according to VanGrack. He said Democratic negotiators used the process to make customers the central focus of the revised framework.

Coinbase now supports the Senate process after opposing an earlier draft in January. Chief Executive Brian Armstrong previously said the exchange could not support that version. Coinbase executives later backed revised legislation after negotiators addressed several industry concerns. The company argues that federal rules would provide registration, examination, surveillance and customer asset protections across the crypto market.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act by a 15-9 vote on May 14. Two Democrats joined committee Republicans, moving the measure toward a full Senate vote. The Senate must combine its Banking and Agriculture Committee versions before final consideration. Support from Democrats will still be needed to clear the chamber's procedural threshold.

The Senate's scheduled state work period begins August 10, leaving lawmakers a limited legislative window. No floor vote appeared on the Senate schedule as of July 21. Negotiators must release the updated text, review amendments and secure leadership time before the recess.

The House passed its own version of the CLARITY Act by a 294-134 vote in July 2025. That measure creates a federal framework for digital asset markets and defines separate oversight roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Senate version includes later changes that could require another House vote. If the Senate approves different language, both chambers must settle those differences before sending the legislation to Trump. Ethics restrictions, customer protections, stablecoin rewards, decentralized finance rules and law enforcement powers remain central negotiating areas.

Volume on the Polymarket contract tracking the bill's 2026 passage stands at $2.06 million.