Trump's CLARITY Act Push Hits Senate Wall With 57% Odds

President Donald Trump escalated his campaign this week to make the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act permanent law. His Truth Social post declared the goal of creating a regulatory framework that future administrations cannot dismantle. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced the message in congressional testimony, calling the current offshore crypto environment the “wild, wild west.”

Bitcoin dipped from above $74,000 to under $73,000 after Trump’s statement. The asset traded at $73,467 at press time. Polymarket traders assigned a 57% probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law during 2026, up from a 49% low after an earlier Senate recess. The peak was 75%.

The legislation passed the House in July 2025. Senate progress stalled over federal shutdowns, industry pushback, and questions about conflicts of interest involving Trump family crypto ventures. Both the Senate Agriculture and Banking committees approved the bill after separate markup sessions in January and May. A full Senate floor vote remains pending. The Republican majority’s narrow margin requires Democratic support for passage. Several Democratic senators have said they will oppose the bill unless it includes more robust ethical safeguards. The legislation must receive a Senate floor vote before the June 2026 cutoff date.

CLARITY Act: The Core Risk Event

Permanent Definitions and Onshoring Mandate

The CLARITY Act aims to establish clear definitions for digital assets and bring crypto operations under U.S. regulatory authority. Bessent told Congress that without onshoring, the “nonsense” offshore would continue. He also stated that no central bank digital currency would be developed under the current administration, calling a government-issued digital dollar “the first step toward tracking.”

Consumer Protection and Developer Liability

Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming argued the act is essential consumer protection. “Without the Clarity Act, if a digital asset exchange goes bankrupt, customers have no guaranteed right to their own assets,” she said. She added that software developers could again face criminal charges for publishing code if the legislation fails. Those two points represent the core practical stakes for crypto users and builders.

Senate Math: The 60-Vote Path and the June 2026 Deadline

Republican Majority and Democratic Price

Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority. At least seven Democratic votes are needed to overcome a filibuster, assuming full GOP unity. Democratic senators have signaled they will demand ethical safeguards covering the Trump family’s crypto ventures, which include:

Memecoin initiatives
World Liberty Financial platform
USD1 stablecoin offering
A Bitcoin mining operation

The president, his children, and business partners maintain connections to these projects. Donald Trump Jr. also serves in an advisory role for prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, a fact Trump referenced when he backed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive authority over such services.

The June 2026 Hard Deadline

The June 2026 cutoff is not an artificial milestone. The bill’s House-passed version expires if a Senate vote does not occur by that date. Restarting the legislative process in the new Congress would mean starting from scratch, with no guarantee of similar momentum.

Asset Exposure: Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Prediction Markets

Bitcoin as a Legislative Barometer

Bitcoin’s price reaction to the CLARITY Act news is modest so far – a roughly $1,000 drop from the pre-Trump-post level. The market appears to price the 57% Polymarket odds as a coin flip, not a certainty. A Senate floor vote date that slips past June 2026 would likely pressure Bitcoin. Conversely, a vote scheduled with clear bipartisan support could lift prices.

USD1 and Offshore Exchanges

The CLARITY Act would directly affect USD1 (World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin) and other dollar-pegged tokens by requiring registration and reserve audits under U.S. law. Offshore exchanges that serve U.S. customers would face a choice: comply or exit. The USD1 project is one potential beneficiary if the bill passes, as it would legitimize a Trump-linked stablecoin under a clear regulatory umbrella.

Prediction Markets Under CFTC Control

Trump’s statement supporting CFTC authority over prediction markets aligns with the CLARITY Act’s framework. Kalshi and Polymarket would face formal registration requirements. Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory role at both platforms adds a conflict-of-interest dimension that opponents will use as leverage.

What Accelerates Passage and What Derails It

Catalysts for Passage

Bipartisan ethics compromise that satisfies Democratic demands without alienating GOP leadership. Senator Lummis’s advocacy could bridge the gap.

Scheduling a floor vote before the summer recess in 2026. The earlier the vote, the less time for opposition to mobilize.

White House pressure on Republican holdouts to maintain party unity.

Triggers for Failure

No ethics language leads to Democratic filibuster. The bill then dies at the June 2026 deadline.

A Trump family crypto scandal during the legislative window that makes the conflict-of-interest issue politically toxic.

Senate recess or government shutdown that eats into the remaining calendar. The 2025 shutdowns already delayed progress.

Next Decision Point: Senate Floor Schedule

The Senate will return from recess in early 2026. Leadership must decide whether to schedule CLARITY Act floor time or prioritize appropriations and other must-pass legislation. The bill’s supporters will push for a vote before the spring, while opponents will try to run out the clock.

For traders and crypto operators, the single most important date is the June 2026 cutoff. If no vote occurs by then, the CLARITY Act dies. The legislative window is narrow, the political math is tight, and the conflicts of interest ensure the debate will be loud. The 57% Polymarket probability is a reasonable base case. The distribution is bimodal: either the bill passes with bipartisan ethics safeguards, or it fails entirely. A Senate floor vote announcement would resolve the ambiguity. Until then, Bitcoin and related tokens trade in a waiting pattern.