Trump pledges crypto future; CLARITY Act odds stay at 56%

The global crypto market cap dropped 3.94% in the past 24 hours. That slide did not stop U.S. President Donald Trump from issuing his first public crypto commentary since March. In a Truth Social post, Trump pledged to "codify a FUTURE-PROOF Digital Asset Market Structure that cannot be undone by the Crypto Haters." He added: "The new Frontier of Finance is being Built in America, and 'TRUMP' will NEVER let Crypto down!"

The post took direct aim at former SEC chair Gary Gensler, calling his tenure an attempt by the "Anti-Crypto Army" that almost destroyed the American crypto industry. Trump declared the United States now the "CRYPTO CAPITAL of the WORLD."

Reaction inside the crypto community split. Supporters pointed to Trump's record: the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the GENIUS Act, a recent legal siding with the CFTC on prediction markets, and a directive to federal regulators to dismantle rules that impede financial innovation. Critics noted that one critical piece of legislation – the CLARITY Act – still has not reached Trump's desk.

Trump's Pro‑Crypto Record vs. The CLARITY Act Gap

Trump's pro‑crypto moves are real. They remain incomplete. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was established by executive order, sidestepping Congress. The GENIUS Act passed through committee but has not been scheduled for a full Senate vote. The CFTC intervention on prediction markets was a legal filing, not a legislative win.

The CLARITY Act is the legislative centerpiece that would give the CFTC primary oversight over digital asset spot markets and set a clear framework for classifying tokens as commodities or securities. Without it, the market structure remains exposed to regulatory whiplash from whichever party controls the SEC next.

Why the CLARITY Act Matters for Crypto Traders

The bill removes the single biggest source of execution risk for crypto assets: regulatory uncertainty. A CFTC‑dominated regime is widely seen as more permissive than an SEC regime that treats most tokens as securities. Passage would reduce the probability of surprise enforcement actions and exchange delistings.

Failure or indefinite delay would leave the market in the current gray zone. An SEC chair could reverse Trump‑era policies with a single rule change.

The 56% Polymarket Odds – What They Mean

Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing were sitting at 56% at the time of Trump's post. That number has not moved significantly. The market does not view Trump's rhetoric as materially improving the bill's chances.

What Is Slowing It Down

Multiple amendments have been introduced. Some expand the SEC's role in surveillance sharing. Others tighten rules on stablecoin issuers. Each amendment forces new rounds of negotiation. The Senate Banking Committee has not yet scheduled a markup. The approval process could stretch into Q4 or beyond.

What Would Move the Odds Higher

A formal Senate Banking Committee vote with bipartisan support would push odds above 70%. A public endorsement from Senator Sherrod Brown or another key Democrat would be a stronger signal than Trump's social media post. Tim Scott, the ranking Republican, is already a co‑sponsor. His vocal push for floor time matters more than presidential cheerleading.

Assets Most Exposed to the CLARITY Act Outcome