Trump crypto disclosure nudges Polymarket US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%

Polymarket's ladder market showed $3,593,026 in volume. The leading strike at December 31 traded at Yes 45.5% and No 54.5%, down from 46.5% previously. Earlier-dated rungs trade at substantially lower implied probabilities: September 30 sits at Yes 28.0% / No 72.0%, while August 31 is Yes 23.5% / No 76.5%. Short-horizon outcomes remain heavily discounted, with July 31 at Yes 2.5% / No 97.5% and June 30 at Yes 0.15% / No 99.85%, signaling traders see limited odds of a near-term agreement but comparatively higher chances later in 2026.

Any official announcements or concrete negotiating milestones tied to a US-Iran nuclear framework could reprice the nearer-dated rungs first. Shifts in liquidity and volume around the September 30 and December 31 strikes will show whether traders are extending or pulling forward their timeline expectations.

Beyond the nuclear file itself, Polymarket traders are also clustering in adjacent Iran-risk contracts. "Next round of US-Iran peace talks by…?" has July 31 at 70.5% on $1,939,352 in volume. "Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be…?" points to Qatar at 47.5% with $1,696,816 traded. Tail-risk escalation is also being priced: "US announces blockade on Iran by…?" shows December 31 at 31.5% on $736,720. Longer-dated political continuity remains a dominant theme in "Iran leader end of 2026?", where Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 82.55% on $17,216,953.