Trump CLARITY Act Push Raises Odds of 2026 Crypto Law to 25%

The CLARITY Act is one of several digital-asset bills circulating in Congress. Its focus on CFTC jurisdiction over digital commodities, rather than splitting authority with the Securities and Exchange Commission, has drawn support from crypto exchanges and issuers who want a single federal regulator. Critics argue the bill leaves gaps around stablecoins and tokens that could be classified as securities.

Trump's statement does not guarantee floor time in the Senate. The chamber's calendar is crowded with appropriations and nominations. A vote before the midterm election cycle is possible but not certain, according to lobbyists tracking the bill.

For now, the 25% probability on prediction markets is the most concrete signal available. A scheduled markup or a Bessent endorsement would push it higher. A Schumer statement opposing the bill would likely sink it.