
John Thune said the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act lacks votes before the break, reversing his nine-day-old pledge. Polymarket odds dropped to 30-33%. The bill faces rising headwinds from stablecoin disputes and election-cycle time constraints.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters July 23 that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act does not have enough votes to pass before the August recess. It is a direct reversal of what Thune said nine days earlier, on July 14, when he committed to a pre-recess vote.
The bill, formally H.R. 3633, passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee on June 1, 2026, after amendments. Designed to draw jurisdictional lines between the SEC and the CFTC over digital assets, it classifies tokens as digital commodities or investment contract assets and sets rules for regulated payment stablecoins.
The reversal follows procedural gridlock. Senate Democrats rejected GOP ethics provisions that were attached to the bill. Disagreements over stablecoin regulation details also chipped away at the bipartisan coalition that carried the bill through the House a year ago.
Thune said he still wants to "initiate discussions" on the legislation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed optimism about the bill's eventual passage. Neither offered a timeline.
Prediction markets moved fast. On Polymarket, the probability of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 dropped to about 30-33%, a sharp decline from the higher odds seen when Thune was still publicly backing a pre-recess vote.
The delay leaves crypto platforms, exchanges, and token issuers in regulatory limbo. No federal statute currently defines which digital assets count as securities versus commodities, or where stablecoins sit in the existing framework. The SEC and CFTC each claim jurisdiction over parts of the market, creating compliance uncertainty for companies trying to operate in the U.S.
The Senate returns from recess in September. The window for passage narrows as the 2026 midterm elections approach, when legislative attention shifts to appropriations and campaign priorities. If the bill does not move in the fall, it likely gets pushed into next year.
Goldman CEO backs CLARITY Act as banks fight stablecoin rewards
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