Telstra and Mineral Resources: 2 ASX Stocks to Watch in 2026

The Telstra Group Ltd (ASX:TLS) share price and Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN) share price are in focus in 2026. Here's how you could put a value on them.

Telstra's telecom infrastructure generates recurring revenue from millions of mobile and fixed-line customers. Earnings are relatively predictable, making discounted cash flow and dividend yield models the typical valuation tools. The key variables are subscriber growth, average revenue per user, and capital spending on 5G and fibre. Return on invested capital and free cash flow conversion matter more than short-term swings in commodity prices.

Mineral Resources tells a different story. The mining and energy company's earnings track commodity cycles. Iron ore and lithium prices drive revenue and margins. EV/EBITDA works better than P/E because earnings swing with prices. Net asset value using reserve life and current commodity forward curves gives a floor. The critical unknown is where lithium prices settle as new supply comes online.

Telstra's dividend yield has averaged in the mid-single digits in recent years. Mineral Resources' revenue contracted last half-year as lithium prices dropped. One offers exposure to a stable, regulated cash flow stream. The other offers leverage to a commodity recovery that may or may not materialise.

Valuation models are only as good as their assumptions. For Telstra, the assumption is that its customer base and pricing power hold steady. For Mineral Resources, the assumption is that commodity prices revert toward marginal cost over time. Both stocks trade on the ASX. The right fit depends on your view of recurring revenue versus commodity risk.