Senate committee approvals gave the bill momentum. A crowded calendar and unresolved stablecoin disagreements now push the next real chance to the lame-duck session or 2026.
The CLARITY Act passed two Senate committees in recent weeks. TD Cowen now says the odds of a full Senate vote before year-end are low, pushing the next realistic passage window to 2026.
The bill, formally the Clarity for Digital Assets Act, cleared the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Industry advocates viewed those votes as a breakthrough after years of legislative gridlock. The measure would create a federal framework for digital asset classification and give the CFTC expanded oversight of crypto spot markets.
Several obstacles block the path to a floor vote. The Senate calendar is crowded with must-pass items: the year-end spending package, the National Defense Authorization Act, and tax extenders. Leadership has shown little appetite for a standalone crypto bill that would require significant floor time and a 60-vote supermajority. Unresolved disagreements over stablecoin definitions and the decentralization test further complicate negotiations.
Stablecoin provisions remain a sticking point. The current bill does not include a stablecoin framework, leaving that to separate legislation. State-by-state licensing remains the default for stablecoin issuers, a fragmented approach that creates inefficiencies for exchanges and custodians. Without a bipartisan compromise on stablecoin definitions, the bill lacks the support needed to overcome a filibuster.
The SEC continues to assert jurisdiction over many tokens that the industry argues are commodities. The CLARITY Act’s reliance on a decentralization test for classification has drawn criticism from both Democrats seeking stronger investor protections and Republicans who view the test as too subjective. No compromise text has emerged that could clear a 60-vote threshold.
The fading chance of 2025 passage extends regulatory uncertainty for institutional investors. Custodians, hedge funds, and asset managers have held back from scaling digital asset operations without clear federal rules. The CLARITY Act would have established a single regulator for spot crypto markets, reducing the legal risk of transacting in tokens the SEC might later classify as securities. A delay keeps that ambiguity intact.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have traded largely on macro and ETF flow narratives rather than regulatory news. A prolonged legislative vacuum, however, leaves the sector vulnerable to enforcement actions from both the SEC and CFTC. The stablecoin debate also stalls: separate legislation, the Stablecoin Transparency Act, remains in committee and faces similar timing constraints.
The next opportunity is the lame-duck session after the November elections. Congress occasionally passes non-controversial bills during that period. The CLARITY Act could be attached to a must-pass omnibus spending bill. That outcome requires leadership to negotiate a deal with holdouts. TD Cowen views a 2026 reintroduction as more likely.
For traders tracking the policy landscape, three markers matter:
The decision point for traders is to watch for any sudden movement to attach the CLARITY Act to a must-pass vehicle. Without that attachment, the regulatory overhang on digital assets persists. For broader context on crypto regulatory developments, see AlphaScala's crypto market analysis and OCC Trust Charter Fight article.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.